MLB Decision Week 2012

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What's the ruling boys?

With mediocre baseball steadily approaching Chicago the two most exciting topics for me are what will be coming out of the Commissioner’s office sometime next week; is Ryan Braun guilty and what will the Red Sox receive from the Cubs?

Let’s talk about Braun for a second and what’s at stake here for baseball. On one hand you have the black cloud of steroids still plaguing the game if Braun is found guilty, and on the other hand if Braun is found innocent then the legitimacy of baseball’s steroid drug testing would be questioned. What to do?

The rumor is Braun is completely innocent and tested positive because he was on a medication to treat a sexually transmitted disease that would cause his levels to post extremely high results. If found not guilty I’m not sure we’ll get the real story, however if baseball is worried about their integrity then we will definitely get the full story from Braun as he proclaims his innocence.

My thought is as all steroid related issues in baseball this one will blow over and people will forget about it no matter the decision, however I do feel that it would be better for baseball if Braun were found not guilty.

As if that wasn’t enough, Bud Selig must decide what is fair compensation for the Boston Red Sox for allowing Theo Epstein to leave the organization while under contract to take a promoted role with Chicago Cubs. Selig has stepped in because the Cubs believe that the Red Sox are asking too much in return for Epstein’s services, but the Red Sox must have a compelling enough case to keep this settlement at a stalemate for this long.

My belief is the Red Sox have presented a case stating ‘what the players meant to the organization’ in return for the services of a management position in a baseball organization citing both the Tampa Bay trade for Lou Piniella and the Florida trade for Ozzie Guillen.

Tampa Bay gave up Randy Winn to get the services of Piniella to manage their team. You might say Randy Winn, so what? Well, if you look at Randy Winn’s stats as a Tampa Ray at that point he was their franchise player. In 2002 his final year with the Rays he led the team in RBIs and stolen bases. He was clearly their best player at that point, but as time would tell he would always be just an average player on other ball clubs. It wasn’t that he was one of the best in baseball, but he was one of the best on the Rays if not the best player they had at the time.

Then you look at the Ozzie Guillen trade that sent two Florida prospects to the White Sox for Guillen and a White Sox prospect before the 2011 season ended. While you will not find either Jhan Marinez or Ozzie Martinez on any overall top prospects list you will find Marinez ranked as the top relief prospect in the Marlins organization, and Martinez ranked as the fifth overall Marlin’s prospect according to Baseball America. Martinez has a .326 major league batting average in 43 games, not too bad.

So, when the Red Sox are rumored to have asked for Matt Garza or top prospect, Brett Jackson, is it really too much? That’s the difficult task that now has fallen into Selig’s lap, but if the Cubs should have to give up either one of the aforementioned players for Epstein is it fair that they be held accountable for other teams’ actions? Just because other teams were willing to give up top level talent for managers does not mean the Cubs should be penalized for it.

If the Red Sox were only willing to except either Garza or Jackson for Epstein then they should have decided that before they let him go to the Cubs. I still believe the Cubs should have let Epstein stay in Boston and hired the rest of his management team that’s in place now. They could have essentially pulled off all the same offseason moves without him officially in place, and hired him next season without all the drama.

So, now Selig has to make a decision that somehow causes as little backlash as possible from two high profile teams and their fans. It’s going to be difficult to pull that off because if the Red Sox do not get what they are asking for then they will cry foul and if Selig awards either of the two rumored players to the Red Sox Cubs’ fans will be irate, I know I would if I were a fan, especially Jackson. If the Red Sox were smart they would ask for Trey McNutt and Wellington Castro, two top ten prospects that will help them in areas that they need help, pitching and catching, but I never said the Red Sox were smart.

A Dunn-like signing?

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Prince Fielder is a Detroit Tiger, an impressive move, equally as impressive as when the White Sox landed Adam Dunn last off-season. It looked like the Sox had solved their DH power-hitting problem and would be heading to the playoffs, instead the signing of Victor Martinez by the Tigers turned out to be the smart move. V-Mart owned the league with runners in scoring position and gave Miguel Cabrera the protection he needed.

Unfortunately for the Tigers V-Mart went down during sliding drills and will be lost for the 2012 season, so the Tigers turn to Fielder to fill the void. The question is will a switch of leagues and more time as a DH work out for Fielder or will he suffer the same issues that Dunn suffered in year one with the White Sox?

Smitty sent me text saying how he was trying to rationalize whether Fielder should bat in front or behind Cabrera and then just started laughing. I replied that it sounds like me last year when the Sox landed Dunn.

First thing to note about Fielder is he’s four years younger than Dunn and several scouts and Sox personnel eluded to the fact that an older Dunn might need to change his off-season regime. This and emergency appendectomy surgery are possibilities for Dunn’s lack of production in 2011, and many veterans have a rebound a year later after making several off-season adjustments. Obviously, all White Sox fans are hoping for this.

After you remove the four-year age difference the similarities are eerie between Fielder and Dunn. Their 162 game averages over their careers are almost identical; Fielder’s is 37 home runs, 106 RBIs, and a .282 average. Even with his terrible 2011 with Sox Dunn’s 162 game average is 38 home runs, 95 RBIs, and a .243 average.

I also decided to take a look at how each player faired in interleague play before switching leagues, so Dunn’s numbers are from 2010.

Fielder hit .294 against the AL last season with one homer, three doubles, and 11 RBIs. The one glaring stat is he faced the Twins in two series and hit only .227 with no homers and five RBIs.

Dunn’s numbers aren’t any more impressive, except that he hit four homers and drove in 16, but he also had 10 more at-bats that can be associated with strike-outs and fly-outs since he doesn’t walk a lot.

Despite the similarities in numbers I think Fielder is going to do just fine in a Tigers uniform especially since he’s a more disciplined hitter than Dunn. I think he’ll have a 10% drop off in home runs because of Comerica Park, but I also think those will could equate to doubles versus fly outs. Everything else statistics wise should stay the same, and let’s be honest a 10% drop off in home runs is only 2-4 less, no biggy.

This year doesn’t scare me as much as 2013, when V-Mart returns to the line-up that will probably go Fielder, Cabrera, Martinez, 3-4-5. Ouch!

HOLY SHIT!!! THE TIGERS JUST SIGNED PRINCE FIELDER!!!

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The Prodigal Son returns home.

I almost fell out of my chair when the news broke over the ESPN 1000 airwaves at 2:02 CST today.  I’m sure I startled my oblivious coworkers with the triumphant, stammering wail blasting out of my office, “HOLY SHIT!!! THE TIGERS JUST SIGNED PRINCE FIELDER!!!”  Needless to say, I was pretty fired up about today’s huge news out of the Motor City.

It’s patently obvious how desperately 82-year-old Detroit Tigers owner Mike Illich yearns to win a World Series after the pizza baron dished out $214 million to His Royal Colossusness.  Reaching the ALCS last year must have truly whet his appetite for a championship as the fact Illich would be 91 by the end of the nine-year deal (and most likely won’t be around by then) speaks volumes about how 2012 is go-for-broke season for the Tigers.

Soon after my workplace outburst, basking in a giddy euphoria, a fellow Tigers fan co-worker and I started speculating whetther Fielder would bat in front of or behind the mighty Miguel Cabrera. Then we just started laughing at what a ridiculously awesome dilemma Jim Leyland has just been confronted with. If only all our problems were so “difficult” to deal with.

The only real issue to be determined is the classic question: Who’s on First?  Preliminary reports have Fielder manning 1B, moving Cabrera to his former postion at the Hot Corner, but I don’t buy it.  Moving Cabrera to third would create an infield with almost no defensive range with the sure-handed, but limited Jhonny Peralta at short.  I think Cabrera is destined for left field where many a Hall of Fame slugger has found a home.  And I’m sure Cabrera and Fielder will spend time at DH, rotating in and out with Delmon Young.

There’s also the question of what to do with Victor Martinez when he comes back in 2013.  But if that question doesn’t bother the man holding the purse strings, it doesn’t bother me.  That’s an issue for another day. However Leyland decides to distribute his embarrassment of riches, these are truly great times to be a Tigers fan.

Remembering Z

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Now that the trade has been made official, considering a Carlos Zambrano controversy sparked the idea for this blog in the first place and the amount of time we’ve subsequently spent discussing his ridiculous antics, it only seems appropriate that we make this tribute to the crazy son of a bitch now that he will be taking his tantrums to South Beach. Big Z, we will ALWAYS remember you.

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Theo does the right move

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No, you're out Carlos!

A trade that can turn into a win-win situation for all parties involved regarding Carlos Zambrano is in the works. Most sites initially reported that this deal is done, but new reports are it could be done by the end of the week sending Big Z to the Marlins with at least $15 million of his $18 million contract paid for by the Cubs in return for right-hander, Chris Volstad, with part of his contract paid by the Marlins. Volstad is owed around $3 million for 2012. The only hold-up is pending physicals according to MLB sources.

Volstad has never lived up to his potential and a change of scenery might be just what he needs to get on track with a WHIP of 1.42 he has a lot of work to do. Even if he doesn’t work out the fact that Theo Epstein has spared the Cubs another year of drama and bad press with Zambrano even is worth it.

Epstein did what Jim Hendry would not do last season when rumors were circulating that the Cubs had interested parties in Zambrano if the Cubs covered one-year of the two years left on his deal. Hendry decided to buy into the Zambrano song and dance, and keep him around another season that ended in disaster in Atlanta. We all know the story, so no need to rehash the details.

With Big Z leaving where does that leave the Cubs with Matt Garza? Rumors coming out of Boston still have Garza being the compensation for Epstein that could be the reason that has not been taken care of yet. Other rumors have Garza being traded away to pitcher hungry teams for top prospects, but if Garza does get traded what does that do for the Cubs this season?

Epstein still has a commitment to put fans in the seats and if he completely blows up the rotation and does not sign Prince Fielder Wrigley Field will be emptier than last season. We’ll be reading more special interest stories about beer vendors unable to sell one case of beer in the upper deck because of lack of attendance. If Garza goes the Cubs starting rotation would consist of Ryan Dempster, Chris Volstad, Randy Wells, Andy Sonnastine, and Travis Wood that makes for some long afternoons on the Northside.

If you keep Garza you build the rotation around him, but Epstein is looking at value in return and he can get the most from Garza. Dempster or Wells would not bring the same top rated talent pool.

From the Marlins point of view they’ve improved their rotation considerably statistically with Zambrano’s numbers being far superior to Volstad. The biggest question will be, “can Ozzie control him?” Ozzie thinks so, but so did Sweet Lou and then you start to hear its “Carlos being Carlos.” Once you hear that it’s over.

Zambrano is also pitching this season for $19 million next season, which was a reason enough for the Cubs to trade him. If he finishes in the top four of Cy Young voting he has a $19 million vesting option in his contract for 2013, a huge chunk of change that the Cubs definitely did not want on their books.

Again, if you’re the Marlins and Big Z pitches that well, you are probably in the playoffs this season with the talented roster that’s been put together to fill their new stadium, so absorbing a $19 million hit in 2013 would not be a big deal for the Marlins.

You have to give Epstein credit for finally doing what should have been by Hendry two years ago. It sure is going to be a quiet baseball season in Chicago now, but the constant chatter coming from Miami might be loud and annoying enough to make to up this way. Let’s hope not, but that seems impossible.

Williams doing his best Epstein?

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Ever since Theo Epstein arrived all I’ve heard about was how he was going to rebuild the Cubs farm system so they had a solid foundation to be competitive for years to come. He allegedly is an expert in this area however he has not done any major minor league improvements to the Cubs.

Meanwhile, on the other side of town the White Sox are putting together a stable of pitching prospects that will surely propel their farm system into one of the top rated systems in baseball. The Padres were so desperate for power they were willing to give up their 2009 minor league player of the year, Simon Castro, a 23-year old starter who has developed some mechanical flaws. Sounds like Dr. Cooper will be fixing another pitcher and turning him into a potential All-Star. The Sox also received another minor league starting pitcher, Pedro Hernandez, who struck out 94 in 18 starts in 2011 between Class A and Class AAA, for sending the oft-injured Carlos Quentin to the Padres. Williams and his staff believe both pitchers have the potential to pitch at the major league level this season.

Quentin leaving seemed inevitable with a crowded outfield that could see his power easily replaced by Dyan Viciedo, and hopefully Viciedo will avoided the injury bug that Quentin never could.

Kenny Williams didn’t stop there, he sent Jason Frasor back to Toronto on New Year’s Day for two more pitching prospects, Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb, both Single-A. Frasor pitched well out of the bullpen for the White Sox last season, but is 34-years old and was inconsistent at times.

Williams first move seemed more puzzling than any of his moves thus far, when he moved recently signed closer, Sergio Santos, to the Jays for another starting pitching prospect, Nestor Molina, who struck out 148 in 23 starts last season between Class A and Class AA.

The bigger news is that the recent moves have freed up money that Williams hinted will allow the the Sox flexibility to make moves if deemed necessary. That’s refreshing to hear since it seemed like they would not be signing any potential free agent upgrades.

If they move Gavin Floyd and/or Matt Thornton before all the pitching free agents are taken I would expect them to sign an available free agent with some veteran leadership to fill the void. Also, let’s not forget the signing of John Danks to a five year $65 million deal with a no-trade clause only in year one.

The White Sox seem to making calculated moves at the moment that could lead to solid nucleus for the future without giving away the entire enchilada. Unless things take an entirely new twist for Williams and the Sox they will be competitive in 2012.

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes: A look back at 2011

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The 2011 season will be remembered by Chicago baseball fans as a period of seismic change on both ends of town.  For better or worse, the landscape couldn’t look more different for both the Cubs and Sox going into 2012 as it did going into 2011. Here’s a look back on our takes on the five biggest:

5. Robin Ventura? posted on October 7, 2011 by Ten years from now after Robin Ventura has lead the White Sox to three championships, and someone asks me, “do you remember where you were when the Sox announced Robin Ventura as their manager,” I will reply, YES. Not because I believe anything that I just wrote is going to happen, but because I would not have been more surprised if Charlie started walking and speaking fluently at five months. [Read more...]

4. Bye Mark posted on December 9, 2011 by  
I felt all offseason that Mark Buehrle leaving the White Sox was inevitable and it turned out I was right, but I remained hopeful since it looked like Paul Konerko was leaving last season. I’m happy Buehrle received the contract he deserved, and also love that he doesn’t have a no trade clause which could see him back in a Sox uniform before the end of his four year contract in Miami. [Read more...]

3. Cubs fans party like it’s 1978. Now what? posted on August 21, 2011 by Cubs fans came out in numbers not seen since Opening Day of 1978 to celebrate the firing of controversial GM, Jim Hendry this weekend. With a new sense of hope, 84, 717 revelers—42,343 on Friday and 42,374 (including myself) on Saturday—crammed into Wrigley Field to bask in the glow of the post-Hendry era like it was the falling of the Berlin Wall.  Oh yeah, and the Cubs beat the Cardinals in 5-4 and 3-0 respectively.  Screw the Cardinals! [Read more...]

2. BYE, BYE!!! Ozzie Greeden! posted on September 27, 2011 by I text my good friend, Smitty, last night and said I wasn’t going to write anything about Ozzie Guillen until this morning, when I had some time to let it all “soak in”. I’m glad I waited, because what I read this morning in the paper made me throw-up in my mouth. [Read more...]

1. Epstein Era: Day One of One Thousand posted on October 25, 2011 by Day One of the Theo Epstein era got off to a rousing start today with his highly-anticipated introductory press conference at Wrigley Field. As with all Day Ones—replete with inspiring rhetoric that lift the spirits of any downtrodden fan base—there is reason for optimism. But it’s going to take a lot of work for Epstein to pull the organization out of the abyss where it currently wallows. Epstein said it himself, ”that does not happen overnight.” [Read more...]