A new low for Cubs?

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New doormat of MLB?

One thing has been consistent up until this year in the White Sox/Cubs series is each team played with emotion and heart in a playoff like atmosphere no matter their records. You could always count on something to steal headlines in each game of the series, but those days seem to be over with the new Cubs’ regime.

The Cubs obviously used up what little emotion they had on Friday all on one controversially call involving David DeJesus and Gordon Beckham. DeJesus was called safe at second as Beckham dove towards him to make the tag. Beckham landed on DeJesus and knocked him off the bag and was called out. Sveum came out of the dug out to argue and was ejected. DeJesus and Beckham exchanged a few words and Beckham sealed the Cubs’ fate with a solo shot in the eighth for a 3-2 White Sox winner. That was the last time the Cubs looked like they were prepared to compete against the Sox; they lost the next two games, 7-4 and 6-0, giving the Sox a sweep over the Cubs. More importantly, the Sox moved back to .500 and trail the Indians by 2-1/2 games.

The beaning of Paul Konerko probably fueled the Sox more than hurt them for the remainder of the series, but let’s be honest and say it was intentional. Jeff Samardzija did the same thing to Jason Heyward of the Atlanta Braves after Heyward took him deep in a game. If you want to drill a guy in the body that’s fine with me, but head hunting is inexcusable and I hope that MLB reviews Samardzija’s behavior.

Cubs traveled to Houston and were pounded by the Astros, 8-4, falling for the seventh straight game. Cubs’ fans might want to start questioning the decision making of Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein at this point; I mean how could Sveum not get this team up for the Sox series. It seems like the perfect series for the Cubs to gain some momentum, but instead the Sox gained it all. The next decision is getting Volstad for Zambrano, not that I’m suggesting Zambrano stay, but Hoyer’s judge of talent a may be a bit off. You would think that the Cubs would have held more power, since they were willing to absorb so much of Zambrano’s salary. They chose Volstad because according to Hoyer and Epstein, who would have the greatest impact on helping the team; whoops!

While Zambrano has fixed his wicked ways in Miami, Volstad looks nothing like a Major League pitcher and has been shipped off to Iowa to figure things out. However you look at it the Cubs are paying $15 million for a Triple-A pitcher or even more gut wrenching, to watch Zambrano pitch effectively for another team.

Meanwhile, they’ve held on to Alfonso Soriano probably because no one wanted him, but I find it hard to believe that if the Cubs chose to pay for most of his contract that he could not have been dealt. That begs the question, what would have been the better move? Dealing Zambrano or Soriano?

At this point, I would say Soriano would have been the better move, since who has been pretty ineffective in all aspects of the game despite his improved defense. I look at the Cubs starting pitching with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, and Carlos Zambrano and think that team has a chance to be competitive; unfortunately that’s not the case.

And Cubs’ fans don’t expect to see Anthony Rizzo or Brett Jackson anytime soon, mainly because Hoyer and Epstein are playing the numbers game. Word around the Cubs organization is the Cubs senior brass has no interest in rushing either player to the majors for financial reasons. Those being, they do not want to be negotiating contracts when these players are truly in their prime, which makes sense from that aspect not for winning. Unless the Cubs can move Soriano for legitimate prospects the earliest you’ll see either of those two will be September.

Still, I’m not sure Hoyer is the right man for the job with his assessment of talent up to this point. Look at the San Diego Padres; they can barely compete in a fairly matched division. All anyone can judge Hoyer on at the moment is the Padres and his moves of the 2012 Cubs, not overly impressive other than getting Rizzo back under his wing. The Red Sox already had a solid nucleus when the brain trust of Theo and Jed arrived, but they did help rebuild a badly damaged farm system for the Red Sox.

Theo wasn’t hired to perform a 2012 miracle at Chewing Gum Field, but he promised the team would be competitive while the bigger plan unfolded. Based on what I’ve seen thus far he lied.

Rivalry Week a split decision so far

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Major League Assholes’ Rivalry Week got off to an unsatisfying start with series splits between the Tigers/White Sox and Cubs/Cardinals.

After the Tigers shit the bed on Monday, blowing two separate multiple-run leads and eventually losing 7-5, the Sox returned the favor in a MAJOR way on Tuesday.  A resurgent Jake Peavy looked like his usual dominant self until the 6th when the wheels completely fell off.  After trailing 6-0, the previously hibernating Tigers’ offense roared to life with an eight-run mauling including bombs from Miguel Cabrera (who’s obviously happy with the way Roger Bossard draws the batter’s box now), Ryan Raburn and Austin Jackson.  Detroit needed all the runs they could get as Jose Valverde and Octavio Dotel did everything they could to give me a heart attack in the 9th as Dayan Viciedo‘s (a.k.a. Lady Di, but a.k.a. Tiger Killer) would-be game-winning drive to right died on the warning track for the final out.

Meanwhile, the surprising Cubs took their third of the last four against the World Champion Cardinals on Monday by a score of 6-4 powered by Bryan “Trade Bait” LaHair‘s ninth blast of the season and a rare productive appearance by Alfonso Soriano. Between suffering the extremes of the Tigers/Sox game and actually trying to get some work done, I missed Tuesday’s walk-off loss to the hated Cards. But I was more than happy to avoid watching those toothless, jort-wearing yokels in St. Louis celebrating.

In a strange scheduling week full of two-game series, the Tigers should get a breather facing the pathetic Twins followed by the equally pathetic Pirates at Comerica Park over their next five.  The Cubs return home tonight to face the offensively-challenged Phillies, but the schedulers at MLB really kicked the Sox in the seeds by sending them out to the West Coast to face the fallen Angels. The Halos aren’t exactly setting the world on fire, but they have won eight of 14 in the month of May.

But the real issue is the travel schedule for the Sox as they won’t land back in Chicago until late Thursday night/Friday monring for Friday’s 1:20 start at Wrigley.  I’m confident enough in the well-rested Cubs’ chances over the drowsy Sox that I picked up Jeff Samardzija (4-1, 2.89 ERA) for a spot-start in our fantasy league.  The Sox send out a suddenly not-so-perfect Phil Humber (1-2, 5.77 ERA) who has struggled badly in his last four starts, giving up 21 runs over 20 just innings.

Saturday’s pitching matchup clearly favors the Cubs again with Ryan “Canadian Trade Bait” Dempster (0-1, 1.74 ERA) facing John Danks (2-4, 6.46 ERA), but as you can see from Demp’s record, the Cubs have found many creative ways to spoil every single one of his outings. Sunday marks the return of the shaken Peavy (4-1, 2.65 ERA) to the mound to battle a chronically mediocre Paul Maholm (4-2, 4.35 ERA), so that one should be interesting.

PV and I will be at Wrigley Friday to witness the carnage while trading insults, slamming Bud Heavies, and maybe even blogging live from the bleachers (if we can still work our iPhones).

Sox are in a funk

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Maybe blowing up some disco records can get the team back on track.

A good April has been replaced by a terrible start to May for the White Sox. The Sox are 2-6, and have become the great tease of 2012. In all of their losses in May except for one they have had they tying or go ahead run at the plate in the ninth giving Sox fans a reason to keep watching. The thing that’s most annoying about this start to May is Cubs’ fans have begun chirping, which is the most annoying sound in the world.

Before we get to far ahead of ourselves I never said the Sox were going to win anything in my preseason predictions, and when I used the 16-game prediction formula I pointed out its only correct 50% of the time. That being said can the Sox still surprise everyone this season? Sure the number of what-ifs that have answered on the positive side seem to point in the right direction. And let’s be honest, this Cleveland team will get on a bad run and be done by June.

If it should come down to the Sox and Tigers you could not ask for two teams more evenly matched at this point in the season. When you look at team numbers it’s kind of crazy:

Homeruns: Sox -31, Tigers – 29
Runs: Tigers – 117, Sox – 116
RBI: Sox – 112, Tigers – 106

Those are a few key categories where the teams are close to even, but overall in the pitching department the Sox are dominate, even though you’d never know by their record:

WHIP: Sox – 1.16, Tigers – 1.33
K’s: Sox – 233, Tigers – 219
ERA: Sox – 3.72, Tigers – 3.96
Opponent’s BA: Sox – .226, Tigers – .262
Hits allowed: Sox – 228, Tigers – 253

It’s kind of hard to believe that the Sox are four games under .500 right now, but that’s the case, as they are having a hard time getting everything to click at the same time. The Sox score six runs and their pitching lets up eight, pitching lets up a run and the Sox strand eight runners. It’s just a bad funk that teams go through from time to time, and the Sox are in one now.

One of their biggest issues takes the mound tonight against the Indians, John Danks their number one starter with a 6.51 ERA. I don’t need to state that Danks has been underwhelming so far this season and tonight would be a good time for him to get back on track. I have not been lucky enough to run into Danks to give him a pep talk like I did Gavin Floyd. Floyd, who has allowed three runs over two starts since we had our friendly exchange at Target.

All of these numbers mean nothing if you can’t find a way to win games, and that’s what the Sox need to figure out this week. Statistically they can be better than the Tigers, but if they have more losses it doesn’t really matter. Just ask the Tigers about the 2006 Cardinals and they’ll tell you numbers don’t mean a thing if you can’t win. The Sox can’t seem to win right now.

Ready to Roar 2.0

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Tigers celebrate Jhonny Peralta’s walkoff homerun to beat the White Sox 5-4 Friday.

“Get to .500, then we can talk.” So goes the ancient baseball adage and so go the Tigers who finally seem to have righted the ship after taking a tight series from the White Sox this weekend to move to 14-13.

I wrote a similar post around this point in the season a year ago about how the Tigers were looking like they were about to separate themselves from the rest of the AL Central and I don’t need to point out how correct I was, but I’m about to do it anyway—sorry about that.

After 27 games in 2011, the Tigers were actually in worse shape with a 10-15 record.  They had suffered through being swept at home by the Mariners just as they have this season, but began turning things around after taking a series from the White Sox.  Sound familiar? Detroit went 85-52 from that point on to cruise to their first division title since 1987 by 15 games. Now it’s looking like history is repeating itself.

The Tigers could be using the Sox as a launching pad once again as 17 of their next 24 games come against sub-.500 ball clubs including Seattle, Chicago, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Boston.  The only exceptions are Oakland and Cleveland who are both bound to come back to earth.

Detroit’s starting pitching had struggled until last week when they combined to give up only 12 runs while eating 40 innings over six games for a 2.70 ERA. Justin Verlander‘s 2-1 record doesn’t reflect his repeat Cy Young performance thus far, averaging almost 7 2/3 innings per start with a 2.38 ERA and .184 batting average against. Rookie Drew Smyly has been dominant with a 1.61 ERA over his first five starts so more consistency from Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer coupled with the return of Doug Fister from the DL to face his former teammates in Seattle tonight suddenly give the Tigers one of the deeper rotations in the game.

There’s no need to fret about a Tigers offense that has sputtered at times this year.  There’s simply too much talent there to flounder all season. PV is a lot more worried about Prince Fielder than I am since he’s sure to improve on his already solid .300 AVG, four HRs and 13 RBI as he gets more and more familiar with American League pitching. Jhonny Peralta finally got his first bomb of the year in spectacular walkoff fashion Friday night. Austin Jackson is showing vastly improved plate discipline and  Miguel Cabrera is simply Miguel Cabrera—on pace for 42 HRs and 132 RBI.

The defense hasn’t been nearly the issue that most pundits predicted it would be before the season started as they currently rank in the top third in the Majors in fielding percentage. However, the bullpen does tend to make me throw up in my mouth at times as the back end has been anything but impressive.  Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit are simply allowing way too many base runners (1.82 and 1.86 WHIPs respectively) and need to get back to the numbers on the back of their bubblegum cards.  When they do, we’ll be seeing a repeat of 2011′s runaway victory in the AL Central.

Maybe AL pitching really is better

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Those AL pitchers can pitch!

Is there better pitching in the AL? I think there might be some truth to what Albert Pujols said in regards to his recent struggles since switching leagues. Cubs’ fans seem to be loving the fact that Pujols is failing, not sure why they take so much joy in such an insignificant result in regards to their team? Hey, to each their own, when you dislike a player you want him to fail, and a lot of people want Pujols to fail just because of his enormous contract that makes the stomachs turn of most Americans. I’ve moved on from players getting over paid for what they do, that’s just how it is and its not going to change unless people stopped showing up completely to events.

Personally, I don’t mind if Pujols does well, he seems like a stand-up guy and does a lot for the communities he plays in.

I started looking at numbers for the other big signings in the offseason, and after looking at Prince Fielder’s numbers this year in the AL compared to last year in the NL I think Pujols might have a point. While Fielder’s numbers are nowhere as horrendous as Pujols’ numbers, they are still down.

Fielder’s batting average is 30 points lower, he has 12 less RBIs, 7 less extra base hits, 2 less homers, and five more strike outs through 27 games. His average is currently at .300, but has dipped as low as .284, which he never saw anything-below .330 last season during his first 27.

I’m not saying Fielder is having a bad season, but his numbers are down since moving to the AL, which adds merit to Pujols’ comments.

What adds greater merit is Adam Dunn last season. Dunn was mister consistent like Pujols in the NL, you would write in 38 homers and 100 RBIs without even thinking about it, and then he signed for big money with the White Sox and poof!

His first year was a disaster with 11 homers, 42 RBIs, and a .159 batting average, could this be right? For six straight years the man’s lows were 38 homers, 92 RBIs, and a .234 batting average. How could this happen?

Some stories were Dunn came in out of shape, but most players and scouts scoffed at this notion. Another story that came out during Waddle and Silvy’s Lunch with a Legend featuring Ozzie Guillen was that Dunn had lost his swing from the moment he stepped foot into Sox camp. Guillen shared a story that Greg Walker allegedly walked into his office the first day Dunn took swings and told Ozzie, “Have you seen Dunn, we have a problem.” Ozzie claimed to have brushed it off saying something like, “he’s a veteran he’ll be fine.” We know that was not the case, and I wondered how much truth there was to that story, I think Ozzie may have been trying to save face for the unemployed Walker.

Could it have been that Dunn was not use to AL pitching? Did it take him a year to adjust? He’s well on his way to crushing last year’s numbers; he has 9 homers and 23 RBIs already this season and seems to be heating up. His current projections are 52 homers and 133 RBIs, which we all know are bloated. I’m thinking 38/100 would be safe again this season.

Meanwhile, Fielder’s on pace for 24 homers and 78 RBIs, and what about Prince Albert? Are you sitting down? Pujols is on pace for six homers and 39 RBIs with a .196 batting average.

What do any of these projections mean? Absolutely nothing, they are just mathematical calculations for the sake of conversation and they are accurate about 25% of the time. Most veteran players up to around 34-35 years of age continue to make their numbers no matter how slow or how fast of a start they have.

In fact, Fielder had a start similar to his start in Detroit this season two years ago with Milwaukee before he went on to hit 32 homers, drive in 83 runs and walk a career high 114 times.

Pujols last season only had eight homers 58 games into the year before he went on a tear and ended the season with 37 homers and 99 RBIs, so beware impatient fantasy owners he could be starting his march to his average numbers.

When the season ends we’ll take a look back and see if Pujols and Fielder made their numbers, or if we will be penning another baseball expression aptly named, “The Donkey Effect.”

Trade LaHair TODAY!

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The Cubs need to wave goodbye to LaHair before his trade value plummets.

Bryan LaHair just went deep… again. His fourth homer in five days coupled with his current .394 average (as I type this) have some Cubs fans thinking he’s the long-term answer to the power vacuum at first base after the exoduses of Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee before him.

But not this Cubs fan.

I’ve certainly got nothing against the big lefty, but LaHair is simply not the answer for the long run.  It has taken him almost 10 years in the minors to get to the point where he can finally make an impact in the majors.  At almost 30, the late bloomer just doesn’t fit into the Cubs long-term plans as he will be in his declining years by the time the Cubs are ready to contend (I’m still looking towards 2014).

And that’s assuming this present level of production isn’t an aberration.  Anyone remember Chris Shelton?  If not, don’t feel bad—he wasn’t around very long.  But any Tigers fan will remember the Rule 5er’s meteoric rise and subsequent flameout back in 2006 when he hit nine bombs in his first 13 games only to drop off the face of the earth.  LaHair has “Shelton” written all over him—kicking around the minors for the better part of a decade then finally making a splash at the start of the season to give some reason to hope he’s finally put it all together.

The real answer is 22-year old Anthony ”Sizzlechest” Rizzo who is simply mashing in Iowa with 35 hits including four doubles, seven HRs, 24 RBI and a 1.060 OPS in 24 games. Theo Epstein & Co. have made it abundantly clear that they love the kid considering they originally drafted him back in Boston and have subsequently traded for him not once, but twice.

They need to strike while the iron is hot (wow, how old is that idiom?) and deal LaHair immediately. The Dodgers would be a logical trading partner as their underachieving first baseman James Loney (.227 average, 1 HR, 6 RBI) has proven to be a annual disappointment on what otherwise looks like a championship ball club at this point. Epstein should call up Magic Johnson today and make something happen while LaHair’s trade value is at it’s zenith.  A package of a few interesting pitching prospects would suffice.

I just hope the Cubs don’t make the same mistake with LaHair as the previous regime did with Carlos Marmol (who just blew another Save as I type this) when they didn’t deal him at the height of his trade value.  Just look how that one’s turned out.  Yuck.

April Recap: Giants/White Sox

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The first month of baseball has come to close and the White Sox and Giants are sitting in pretty good positions. While the Giants have underachieved at times, the White Sox have either played as predicted or have exceed expectations.

When I look back on the Giants’ first month they really have played some good baseball, it’s just that Tim Lincecum has had some early season struggles and the Dodgers had such a hot start.

Giants Recap                        Grade: B

The Giants have played through adversity to come away with a 12-10 record to close out the month of April. They’ve lost Brian Wilson for the season, Aubrey Huff for an undisclosed amount of time from a nervous breakdown, and of course Lincecum’s control and velocity issues.

Despite all this Bruce Bochy has the boys playing with confidence, and the Giants are getting some early season swagger and confidence at the plate.

Positives include an offense that can produce runs; Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, and Barry Zito have all pitched spectacularly; Santiago Casilla has emerged as the closer with four saves; and Buster Posey seems to be fully recovered, as he’s batting .353 with four homers, nine RBIs, and an OPS of 1.016. I’d call that recovered.

I’m fairly confident that they will catch the Dodgers by the end of May, but it should be a battle the entire the year.

White Sox Recap      Grade: C

The Sox already have 11 wins that took 30 games last year and only 22 this year, already an improvement. They finished the month of April even instead of a losing record that had been the case for Ozzie Guillen every season except 2005, and the bigger “what-ifs” are producing.

ESPN the Magazine picked the Sox to finish last in the AL Central with the caveat, “best case scenario: all their veterans have bounce back years and they compete for the division and playoff spot.” I’m paraphrasing what they wrote, but I found it amazingly true and funny. How could you pick a team to finish last in their division and in the next breath say they could compete for the playoffs and division title. It seems almost ludicrous, to use Smitty’s favorite new word, but it really wasn’t at all.

The Sox needed three big things to happen, Jake Peavy, Adam Dunn, and Alex Rios to show-up and play their game, and it’s happened.

The reason the Sox are only .500 is because they have other issues, like finding a legitimate number two hitter and what to do with Gordon Beckham if can’t hit. The easier of the two is leave Beckham in the nine spot and enjoy his play in the field, but the number two spot remains an issue. Brent Morel has started so poorly that Robin Ventura has been forced to go with Alexei Ramirez in the two spot, but he’s also a notoriously slow starter so that really hasn’t solved the problem. At the moment your three candidates for the number two spot in the line-up are Morel, Beckham, and Ramirez; they are batting .178, .153, and .207 respectively, which is not good. At least Ramirez has respect for the Mendoza-line.

Also, Hector Santiago as the White Sox closer has looked great and horrible, but no one is a lights out closer these days. With two lefties coming up in the Red Sox line-up on Sunday Ventura left Thornton in and it worked. Ventura said Santiago is still the closer, but he felt better about the match-up against two lefties with Thornton; so did I.

Looks like the AL Central is going to be a dogfight this season.

It’s NOT too early to call Pujols a bust in LA

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The moment Albert Pujols signed on the dotted line, his 10-year, $240 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim became the most expensive mistake by any team in Major League history.  The fact that Pujols is about to finish up the worst April of his career with no home runs and only 4 RBI highlights what a foolish and horrendous deal the Angels have shackled themselves to for the next decade. I’m not afraid to throw around the term ‘bust’ in this case and I’m not just piling on with other pundits who are currently crucifying the archAngel.  I pointed out owner Arte Moreno‘s folly in my 2012 Predictions a month ago.

No statement could have been more self-evident than when the Angels first baseman told reporters: “I don’t try to hit home runs” this past weekend in Cleveland.   Well Albert, you might want to start thinking about trying. While it’s ridiculous to think he’ll remain on pace for 29 RBI and bat .216 for the season, a severe decline in his production should be a surprise to no one.

Pujols has strung together arguably the greatest 11 seasons ever with a career average of .327 with 42 home runs and 125 RBI per year. But the 32-year old’s (if that’s truly his age) numbers have been declining for the last two years.  It’s probably unfair to accuse him of lying about his age, but it certainly wouldn’t be unprecedented.  Record keeping in his native Dominican Republic could hardly be described as meticulous. We only have to look to this past off-season with the Fausto Carmona, a.k.a. Roberto Hernández fiasco. Age and identity fraud has been rampant for decades in the D.R. as there’s obviously tremendous incentive for a prospect to shave off a couple years when signing his first deal with a major league club.

Lionel Hutz, a.ka. "Miguel Sanchez"

Even if Pujols truly is 32 and doesn’t drop a Lionel Hutz on the world (“Say hello to Miguel Sanchez!!!”), to hand a deal like that to anyone that age is asking for disaster.  It has been proven time after time that players begin to decline in the early 30s.  As stated above, we’ve already seen that decline begin with Pujols over his last two years in St. Louis.  While I’m certainly no fan of the Cardinals, I have to admire their decision to cut ties with their demigod, knowing they got the best years out of him.  The Angels have made the same mistake the Cubs have time after time—paying for past performance rather than future returns.

Even if he turns things around in a major way this year, to think that he will be putting up numbers worthy of an average of $24 million per year even for the next two or three years is optimistic at best. But it is certain that the shadow of his former self we’ll be forced to watch as he creeps into his 40s will be a sad commentary on the short-sighted hubris of baseball owners in the early 2010s.

Thank God I’m not an Angels fan.

Giants round-up

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ImageThe Giants are starting to look like the team I thought they were at the start of the season, especially with the welcomed return of the real Tim Lincecum this past week. “The Freak” looked impressive in Saturday pitching eight innings of three hit ball with five strikeouts and no earned runs. He did have some control problems early that lead to four walks, but he settled in nicely. Before I start popping the champagne bottles I do realize that it’s the San Diego Padres, a team with a sporadic offense at best. Still, with the way Lincecum started the year he would not have been able to beat the Padres if things did not improve.

Madison Bumgarner handled the Padres quite easily yesterday allowing one run over 7-2/3 innings with six strikeouts, six hits, a walk and a run. At the moment, it looks like Santiago Casilla has taken over the closer duties for the Giants in the absence of Brian Wilson. Casilla has successfully completed his four save opportunities, which is another good sign for the Giants.

Under the weird baseball moments, Aubrey Huff suffered a nervous breakdown last week and has not played since. This allowed Buster Posey to play first on Sunday, a day he would have normally had off. Even though Huff has been placed on the 15-day DL, there is no timetable for his return. While a lot of people equate money with happiness, there’s no reason to be unsympathetic towards Huff because he’s making $11 million this year. I look at this way, mo’ money mo’ problems, right?

No one really know what’s happening in his personal life, so to call into a sports radio program and say things like, “what’s he got to worry about, he’s making $11 million a year,” is purely idiotic.

When the Giants return to play on Tuesday Matt Cain will be on the hill against Miami Marlins’ pitcher, Ricky Nolasco.