Category Archives: Chicago Cubs

A new low for Cubs?

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New doormat of MLB?

One thing has been consistent up until this year in the White Sox/Cubs series is each team played with emotion and heart in a playoff like atmosphere no matter their records. You could always count on something to steal headlines in each game of the series, but those days seem to be over with the new Cubs’ regime.

The Cubs obviously used up what little emotion they had on Friday all on one controversially call involving David DeJesus and Gordon Beckham. DeJesus was called safe at second as Beckham dove towards him to make the tag. Beckham landed on DeJesus and knocked him off the bag and was called out. Sveum came out of the dug out to argue and was ejected. DeJesus and Beckham exchanged a few words and Beckham sealed the Cubs’ fate with a solo shot in the eighth for a 3-2 White Sox winner. That was the last time the Cubs looked like they were prepared to compete against the Sox; they lost the next two games, 7-4 and 6-0, giving the Sox a sweep over the Cubs. More importantly, the Sox moved back to .500 and trail the Indians by 2-1/2 games.

The beaning of Paul Konerko probably fueled the Sox more than hurt them for the remainder of the series, but let’s be honest and say it was intentional. Jeff Samardzija did the same thing to Jason Heyward of the Atlanta Braves after Heyward took him deep in a game. If you want to drill a guy in the body that’s fine with me, but head hunting is inexcusable and I hope that MLB reviews Samardzija’s behavior.

Cubs traveled to Houston and were pounded by the Astros, 8-4, falling for the seventh straight game. Cubs’ fans might want to start questioning the decision making of Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein at this point; I mean how could Sveum not get this team up for the Sox series. It seems like the perfect series for the Cubs to gain some momentum, but instead the Sox gained it all. The next decision is getting Volstad for Zambrano, not that I’m suggesting Zambrano stay, but Hoyer’s judge of talent a may be a bit off. You would think that the Cubs would have held more power, since they were willing to absorb so much of Zambrano’s salary. They chose Volstad because according to Hoyer and Epstein, who would have the greatest impact on helping the team; whoops!

While Zambrano has fixed his wicked ways in Miami, Volstad looks nothing like a Major League pitcher and has been shipped off to Iowa to figure things out. However you look at it the Cubs are paying $15 million for a Triple-A pitcher or even more gut wrenching, to watch Zambrano pitch effectively for another team.

Meanwhile, they’ve held on to Alfonso Soriano probably because no one wanted him, but I find it hard to believe that if the Cubs chose to pay for most of his contract that he could not have been dealt. That begs the question, what would have been the better move? Dealing Zambrano or Soriano?

At this point, I would say Soriano would have been the better move, since who has been pretty ineffective in all aspects of the game despite his improved defense. I look at the Cubs starting pitching with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, and Carlos Zambrano and think that team has a chance to be competitive; unfortunately that’s not the case.

And Cubs’ fans don’t expect to see Anthony Rizzo or Brett Jackson anytime soon, mainly because Hoyer and Epstein are playing the numbers game. Word around the Cubs organization is the Cubs senior brass has no interest in rushing either player to the majors for financial reasons. Those being, they do not want to be negotiating contracts when these players are truly in their prime, which makes sense from that aspect not for winning. Unless the Cubs can move Soriano for legitimate prospects the earliest you’ll see either of those two will be September.

Still, I’m not sure Hoyer is the right man for the job with his assessment of talent up to this point. Look at the San Diego Padres; they can barely compete in a fairly matched division. All anyone can judge Hoyer on at the moment is the Padres and his moves of the 2012 Cubs, not overly impressive other than getting Rizzo back under his wing. The Red Sox already had a solid nucleus when the brain trust of Theo and Jed arrived, but they did help rebuild a badly damaged farm system for the Red Sox.

Theo wasn’t hired to perform a 2012 miracle at Chewing Gum Field, but he promised the team would be competitive while the bigger plan unfolded. Based on what I’ve seen thus far he lied.

Rivalry Week a split decision so far

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Major League Assholes’ Rivalry Week got off to an unsatisfying start with series splits between the Tigers/White Sox and Cubs/Cardinals.

After the Tigers shit the bed on Monday, blowing two separate multiple-run leads and eventually losing 7-5, the Sox returned the favor in a MAJOR way on Tuesday.  A resurgent Jake Peavy looked like his usual dominant self until the 6th when the wheels completely fell off.  After trailing 6-0, the previously hibernating Tigers’ offense roared to life with an eight-run mauling including bombs from Miguel Cabrera (who’s obviously happy with the way Roger Bossard draws the batter’s box now), Ryan Raburn and Austin Jackson.  Detroit needed all the runs they could get as Jose Valverde and Octavio Dotel did everything they could to give me a heart attack in the 9th as Dayan Viciedo‘s (a.k.a. Lady Di, but a.k.a. Tiger Killer) would-be game-winning drive to right died on the warning track for the final out.

Meanwhile, the surprising Cubs took their third of the last four against the World Champion Cardinals on Monday by a score of 6-4 powered by Bryan “Trade Bait” LaHair‘s ninth blast of the season and a rare productive appearance by Alfonso Soriano. Between suffering the extremes of the Tigers/Sox game and actually trying to get some work done, I missed Tuesday’s walk-off loss to the hated Cards. But I was more than happy to avoid watching those toothless, jort-wearing yokels in St. Louis celebrating.

In a strange scheduling week full of two-game series, the Tigers should get a breather facing the pathetic Twins followed by the equally pathetic Pirates at Comerica Park over their next five.  The Cubs return home tonight to face the offensively-challenged Phillies, but the schedulers at MLB really kicked the Sox in the seeds by sending them out to the West Coast to face the fallen Angels. The Halos aren’t exactly setting the world on fire, but they have won eight of 14 in the month of May.

But the real issue is the travel schedule for the Sox as they won’t land back in Chicago until late Thursday night/Friday monring for Friday’s 1:20 start at Wrigley.  I’m confident enough in the well-rested Cubs’ chances over the drowsy Sox that I picked up Jeff Samardzija (4-1, 2.89 ERA) for a spot-start in our fantasy league.  The Sox send out a suddenly not-so-perfect Phil Humber (1-2, 5.77 ERA) who has struggled badly in his last four starts, giving up 21 runs over 20 just innings.

Saturday’s pitching matchup clearly favors the Cubs again with Ryan “Canadian Trade Bait” Dempster (0-1, 1.74 ERA) facing John Danks (2-4, 6.46 ERA), but as you can see from Demp’s record, the Cubs have found many creative ways to spoil every single one of his outings. Sunday marks the return of the shaken Peavy (4-1, 2.65 ERA) to the mound to battle a chronically mediocre Paul Maholm (4-2, 4.35 ERA), so that one should be interesting.

PV and I will be at Wrigley Friday to witness the carnage while trading insults, slamming Bud Heavies, and maybe even blogging live from the bleachers (if we can still work our iPhones).

Trade LaHair TODAY!

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The Cubs need to wave goodbye to LaHair before his trade value plummets.

Bryan LaHair just went deep… again. His fourth homer in five days coupled with his current .394 average (as I type this) have some Cubs fans thinking he’s the long-term answer to the power vacuum at first base after the exoduses of Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee before him.

But not this Cubs fan.

I’ve certainly got nothing against the big lefty, but LaHair is simply not the answer for the long run.  It has taken him almost 10 years in the minors to get to the point where he can finally make an impact in the majors.  At almost 30, the late bloomer just doesn’t fit into the Cubs long-term plans as he will be in his declining years by the time the Cubs are ready to contend (I’m still looking towards 2014).

And that’s assuming this present level of production isn’t an aberration.  Anyone remember Chris Shelton?  If not, don’t feel bad—he wasn’t around very long.  But any Tigers fan will remember the Rule 5er’s meteoric rise and subsequent flameout back in 2006 when he hit nine bombs in his first 13 games only to drop off the face of the earth.  LaHair has “Shelton” written all over him—kicking around the minors for the better part of a decade then finally making a splash at the start of the season to give some reason to hope he’s finally put it all together.

The real answer is 22-year old Anthony ”Sizzlechest” Rizzo who is simply mashing in Iowa with 35 hits including four doubles, seven HRs, 24 RBI and a 1.060 OPS in 24 games. Theo Epstein & Co. have made it abundantly clear that they love the kid considering they originally drafted him back in Boston and have subsequently traded for him not once, but twice.

They need to strike while the iron is hot (wow, how old is that idiom?) and deal LaHair immediately. The Dodgers would be a logical trading partner as their underachieving first baseman James Loney (.227 average, 1 HR, 6 RBI) has proven to be a annual disappointment on what otherwise looks like a championship ball club at this point. Epstein should call up Magic Johnson today and make something happen while LaHair’s trade value is at it’s zenith.  A package of a few interesting pitching prospects would suffice.

I just hope the Cubs don’t make the same mistake with LaHair as the previous regime did with Carlos Marmol (who just blew another Save as I type this) when they didn’t deal him at the height of his trade value.  Just look how that one’s turned out.  Yuck.

Tigers, White Sox, Giants all playoff bound?

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This may go down as the nerdiest baseball article that I ever write for this blog, but probably not as this will lead to more articles like this. My father in-law sent me an article a few weeks ago about how game 16-20 of the baseball season is when you can really predict the outcome of the season with some degree of accuracy.

This theory comes from the biggest baseball nerds, The Baseball Prospectus boys, and is covered in their latest book, EXTRA INNINGS More Baseball Between the Numbers from the Team at Baseball Prospectus. I adore this type of theory, not sure why, but it must go hand-in-hand with my love for baseball. That being said, I purchased the book, and immediately read the chapter, “When Does a Hot Start Become Real?”

I’m going to try to get to the gist of it to avoid boring many, but basically with the average wins and losses set at .500, you can accurately predict the end of season records of MLB teams within 8-games at game 16 according to the book. This formula (Current W%× 50% + .500 × 50% = W%) was derived using all seasons since 1962 when the 162-game schedule was adopted by both leagues. The strike-shortened seasons were excluded from the formula. When you get the 16th game of the season you can use the teams current winning percentage to accurately account for ½ the outcome over the league average of .500 as the mean. So if you’re playing .500 after 16 games the formula will have you finishing at 81-81. Since it’s a 50/50 formula it’s accurately predicted records ½ the time on average since 1962.

Obviously, the Red Sox rebounded last year to win 90 games, where the prediction was 66 wins, on the other hand the formula output 96 wins for Texas and that’s exactly what happened.

Something else that can be added to expand the accuracy of the formula is a three-year average win for a team, unless the team has had major roster turnover. So, when the Indians and Royals came out of the gate with a 12-4 and 10-6 starts respectively they were both playoff bound according to the formula, however if you take into account their recent histories with no significant team improvements being made it was safe to say it was a fluke; it was. The Tigers easily won the division with a dominant September.

The White Sox this season would fall under a team that has had a lot of turnover in the offseason with a lot of what-ifs that are returning positive numbers, so their average wins over the last three seasons would not be applicable for the reality of this number.

In Extra Innings they use the example of the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks who were predicted to win 77 games based on their three year average, but with so many unanswered questions with top prospects filling starting roles that should be weighted lighter than the normal 52 percent, putting a greater emphasis on their actual season record. The Diamondbacks won 90 games that year and made the playoffs.

Are you still awake? Anyway, that explains how the predictions below were calculated, which if they stand true I will have been very wrong in my preseason predictions.

We’ll take another look at this at the end of May to see what’s changed.

AL CENTRAL
Well, its going to be a dogfight between the Tigers and White Sox with them both predicted to win 91 games, the Indians calculated to 86 wins, but I would say that’s more optimism than reality. Two things that need to be taken into consideration, the Manny Acta factor and they’re fielding close to the exact same team that faded last season. The division is rounded out with the Twins at 66 wins and the team I never believed was going to compete this season, the Royals at 56 wins.

AL EAST
This entire division is up for grabs, and if you consider what happened last season with Boston it makes it even harder to say there’s a true winner. The Blue Jays and Yankees are both predicted to finish with 91 wins and the Rays and Orioles are predicted with 86 wins. The only team that would be considered a non-contender at this point would be the Red Sox at 68 wins, but again remember last year.

AL WEST
Well, the Texas Rangers are going to win this one in a laugher with 106 wins with the A’s and Mariners 30 games behind them at 76 wins. The Angels are predicted to only have 71 wins at this point. The Red Sox theory may apply to Angels this season, and lets not forget that the Rangers have some injury prone players. Still, looking at Texas right now it’s pretty easy to believe this outcome.

NL CENTRAL
No surprises here except the Cubs are expected to have 61 wins, nine better than Smitty’s post on our Facebook site the other day. The Cardinals are netting out at 96 wins with the Brewers and Reds both netting out at 76. The Pirates are calculated at 73 wins and the Astros with 71 wins. I still believe this division is up for grabs with either the Brewers and/or Reds making a strong push at some point this season.

NL EAST
The Nationals are calculated to have 101 wins; I don’t believe that for a second with the Braves behind them with 91 wins. Again, this is accurate within 8 games either way, which can make a big difference and probably will here. The Mets are at 81, the Marlins at 78, and the Phillies at the bottom with 76. I think the Phillies will make some noise and still believe the Braves will win this division.

NL WEST
Magic Johnson is working his magic already as the Dodgers are on fire! They are also slated for 101 wins with the Giants in second at 86 and the Rockies at 84 in third. The Diamondbacks are a close fourth at 81 and the Padres anchor the division at 61 wins. The Dodgers look really good right now, but this division will get tighter than predicted here. Still, I would not be surprised by a Dodgers division win.

AL Playoffs
Rangers
Tigers
Blue Jays
White Sox
Yankees

NL Playoffs
Nationals
Dodgers
Cardinals
Braves
Giants

When you look at the playoffs, it doesn’t look so crazy, does it? I did say in my preseason predictions that if everything clicked for the Blue Jays and White Sox they would be competing for their divisions. I think the biggest surprises for me are the Nationals and Dodgers, but let’s a take a look at the end of May where the weight on season record becomes even more of a reality.

Theo’s Plan in Full Swing

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Trading the aged and declining Marlon Byrd is another step in the right direction.

The 4-12 Chicago Cubs certainly haven’t given fans anything to boast about thus far in 2012, but it’s rather impressive to look at what Theo Epstein & Co. have done with the pile of garbage they inherited from the previous regime and see how quickly they’ve been able to implement and begin to execute significant parts of their plan to rebuild the inept franchise from the ground up.

Yesterday’s trade of 34-year old Marlon Byrd to the Boston Red Sox was the latest step in the plan to rid themselves of older players who are clearly not part of the Cubs’ future. Byrd’s initial enthusiasm and effort after joining the club in 2010 was slowly replaced by indifference and sub-par production, culminating in his paltry three singles in 43 at-bats to start this season. Tom Ricketts will have to eat most of his $6.5 million salary due him, but he’s got the money and Byrd is clearly in severe decline. To be able to further pillage the desperate, spiteful, and spiraling Red Sox for promising 25-year old, left-handed reliever Michael Bowden and a player to be named is just icing on the cake.

The housecleaning started a mere two months after the new braintrust took office with the jettison of North Side pariah Carlos Zambrano. Big Z’s welcome was more than worn out in Chicago, though he was always great fodder for this blog.  Any production out of Chris Volstad will be worth it and even though it cost the team $15 million to send Carlos’ sorry ass down to Miami, it was money well spent.

Next up in the gut-rehab project should be trading the recently DL-ed Ryan Dempster and his mildly amusing Harry Caray impression. The jocular Canadian has been a cornerstone fo the staff for years as a closer and starter with 87 saves, 62 wins, and a 3.83 ERA over his eight-year career with the Cubs. But at age 34, he’s simply not part of the future. A quick return from his strained right quadriceps will go a long way toward boosting his trade value by  the deadline to a playoff contender looking for pitching depth.  Get healthy Demp!

The coup de gras will be finally moving Alfonso Soriano and the three years and $54 million left on his albatros of a contract that Jim Hendry saddled the club with.  It would take a miracle for Epstein to ever pull that off, but hey—they said the same thing about the Red Sox ever winning another World Series.

So at least there are a few positive signs for Cubs fans to look at just 16 games into what everyone knows is a lost season.  This is going to be a long process, but the process has definitely started.

Theo vs. Pete

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We like to have fun at Major League Assholes, so it’s Team Theo vs. Team Pete for the rest of the baseball season. This is how it’s going to work, Team Theo will be comprised of the Cubs, Red Sox, and Padres, and Team Pete will be comprised of the White Sox and Giants.

We’ll keep track of this throughout the season, so check back often to see if Team Theo can overtake Team Pete. The teams for Team Theo are the last two teams he and Hoyer were GMs for and are currently running. For me it’s my two favorite teams. ENJOY!

Week One Report Cards: Cubs/Tigers

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Can we please put an end to the debate? There is no question Chicago is the greatest baseball town in the world.  In this first week of the season, not only did I have the privilege of getting sunburned and a bit intoxicated amongst the brick and ivy in the bleachers of baseball’s greatest cathedral last weekend (though I had to suffer through Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol defiling another solid start by Matt Garza), but I get to head down to Mobile Phone Park today to watch the Tigers avenge yesterday’s tough loss to the South Side nemesis.

Seven or eight games certainly isn’t enough of a sample size to draw any definitive conclusions about the long season ahead, but that’s not going to stop me from doing it here.

Cubs: C+
The Cubs 3-5 record masks what has been a surprisingly productive offense that ranks in the NL’s top five in Runs, RBI, and Avg. and better than average starting pitching. Despite poor outings by 4th and 5th staters Chris Volstad and Paul Maholm, Cubs starters have a combined 3.51 ERA with 50 Ks in 51.2 innings. Garza and  Ryan Dempster have both had quality starts spoiled by the bullpen which is the only thing keeping them out of first place in the division.  Is it too early to question the wisdom of the ‘Messiah’ Theo Epstein for trading one of the game’s best left-handed relievers in Sean Marshall for Travis Wood who is on a bus somewhere in Iowa now?  Nope.

Tigers: A-
It wasn’t hard to predict the Tigers would have a good offense, but to lead the AL or rank second in Runs, Hits, Triples, RBI, Avg, OBP, and SLG% is even more than I could’ve hoped for.  With an offense like that, the pitching only has to be average, which it has been, ranking in the middle of the AL with a 3.80 ERA despite having to rely on minor league call-ups Drew Smyly and today’s starter Adam Wilk due to Doug Fister‘s mysterious left side injury. Even the defense has been decent despite the lack of range.  The only thing that worries me is closer Jose Valverde who has already blown a save and couldn’t stop the bleeding when Justin Verlander inexplicably imploded after eight dominant innings on Wednesday.  Papa Grande needs to return to his 2011 form before I can give the Tigers full marks.

So now I’m off to 35th & Shields where the Sox have an awful record against staters they’ve never seen before—I’m sure PV has the numbers. A shaky Gavin Floyd looks to be the next punching bag for the Tigers potent offense. I’m just hoping Roger ‘Sodfather’ Bossard can draw the batter’s box correctly today.