Category Archives: Detroit Tigers

Rivalry Week a split decision so far

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Major League Assholes’ Rivalry Week got off to an unsatisfying start with series splits between the Tigers/White Sox and Cubs/Cardinals.

After the Tigers shit the bed on Monday, blowing two separate multiple-run leads and eventually losing 7-5, the Sox returned the favor in a MAJOR way on Tuesday.  A resurgent Jake Peavy looked like his usual dominant self until the 6th when the wheels completely fell off.  After trailing 6-0, the previously hibernating Tigers’ offense roared to life with an eight-run mauling including bombs from Miguel Cabrera (who’s obviously happy with the way Roger Bossard draws the batter’s box now), Ryan Raburn and Austin Jackson.  Detroit needed all the runs they could get as Jose Valverde and Octavio Dotel did everything they could to give me a heart attack in the 9th as Dayan Viciedo‘s (a.k.a. Lady Di, but a.k.a. Tiger Killer) would-be game-winning drive to right died on the warning track for the final out.

Meanwhile, the surprising Cubs took their third of the last four against the World Champion Cardinals on Monday by a score of 6-4 powered by Bryan “Trade Bait” LaHair‘s ninth blast of the season and a rare productive appearance by Alfonso Soriano. Between suffering the extremes of the Tigers/Sox game and actually trying to get some work done, I missed Tuesday’s walk-off loss to the hated Cards. But I was more than happy to avoid watching those toothless, jort-wearing yokels in St. Louis celebrating.

In a strange scheduling week full of two-game series, the Tigers should get a breather facing the pathetic Twins followed by the equally pathetic Pirates at Comerica Park over their next five.  The Cubs return home tonight to face the offensively-challenged Phillies, but the schedulers at MLB really kicked the Sox in the seeds by sending them out to the West Coast to face the fallen Angels. The Halos aren’t exactly setting the world on fire, but they have won eight of 14 in the month of May.

But the real issue is the travel schedule for the Sox as they won’t land back in Chicago until late Thursday night/Friday monring for Friday’s 1:20 start at Wrigley.  I’m confident enough in the well-rested Cubs’ chances over the drowsy Sox that I picked up Jeff Samardzija (4-1, 2.89 ERA) for a spot-start in our fantasy league.  The Sox send out a suddenly not-so-perfect Phil Humber (1-2, 5.77 ERA) who has struggled badly in his last four starts, giving up 21 runs over 20 just innings.

Saturday’s pitching matchup clearly favors the Cubs again with Ryan “Canadian Trade Bait” Dempster (0-1, 1.74 ERA) facing John Danks (2-4, 6.46 ERA), but as you can see from Demp’s record, the Cubs have found many creative ways to spoil every single one of his outings. Sunday marks the return of the shaken Peavy (4-1, 2.65 ERA) to the mound to battle a chronically mediocre Paul Maholm (4-2, 4.35 ERA), so that one should be interesting.

PV and I will be at Wrigley Friday to witness the carnage while trading insults, slamming Bud Heavies, and maybe even blogging live from the bleachers (if we can still work our iPhones).

Ready to Roar 2.0

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Tigers celebrate Jhonny Peralta’s walkoff homerun to beat the White Sox 5-4 Friday.

“Get to .500, then we can talk.” So goes the ancient baseball adage and so go the Tigers who finally seem to have righted the ship after taking a tight series from the White Sox this weekend to move to 14-13.

I wrote a similar post around this point in the season a year ago about how the Tigers were looking like they were about to separate themselves from the rest of the AL Central and I don’t need to point out how correct I was, but I’m about to do it anyway—sorry about that.

After 27 games in 2011, the Tigers were actually in worse shape with a 10-15 record.  They had suffered through being swept at home by the Mariners just as they have this season, but began turning things around after taking a series from the White Sox.  Sound familiar? Detroit went 85-52 from that point on to cruise to their first division title since 1987 by 15 games. Now it’s looking like history is repeating itself.

The Tigers could be using the Sox as a launching pad once again as 17 of their next 24 games come against sub-.500 ball clubs including Seattle, Chicago, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Boston.  The only exceptions are Oakland and Cleveland who are both bound to come back to earth.

Detroit’s starting pitching had struggled until last week when they combined to give up only 12 runs while eating 40 innings over six games for a 2.70 ERA. Justin Verlander‘s 2-1 record doesn’t reflect his repeat Cy Young performance thus far, averaging almost 7 2/3 innings per start with a 2.38 ERA and .184 batting average against. Rookie Drew Smyly has been dominant with a 1.61 ERA over his first five starts so more consistency from Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer coupled with the return of Doug Fister from the DL to face his former teammates in Seattle tonight suddenly give the Tigers one of the deeper rotations in the game.

There’s no need to fret about a Tigers offense that has sputtered at times this year.  There’s simply too much talent there to flounder all season. PV is a lot more worried about Prince Fielder than I am since he’s sure to improve on his already solid .300 AVG, four HRs and 13 RBI as he gets more and more familiar with American League pitching. Jhonny Peralta finally got his first bomb of the year in spectacular walkoff fashion Friday night. Austin Jackson is showing vastly improved plate discipline and  Miguel Cabrera is simply Miguel Cabrera—on pace for 42 HRs and 132 RBI.

The defense hasn’t been nearly the issue that most pundits predicted it would be before the season started as they currently rank in the top third in the Majors in fielding percentage. However, the bullpen does tend to make me throw up in my mouth at times as the back end has been anything but impressive.  Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit are simply allowing way too many base runners (1.82 and 1.86 WHIPs respectively) and need to get back to the numbers on the back of their bubblegum cards.  When they do, we’ll be seeing a repeat of 2011′s runaway victory in the AL Central.

Maybe AL pitching really is better

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Those AL pitchers can pitch!

Is there better pitching in the AL? I think there might be some truth to what Albert Pujols said in regards to his recent struggles since switching leagues. Cubs’ fans seem to be loving the fact that Pujols is failing, not sure why they take so much joy in such an insignificant result in regards to their team? Hey, to each their own, when you dislike a player you want him to fail, and a lot of people want Pujols to fail just because of his enormous contract that makes the stomachs turn of most Americans. I’ve moved on from players getting over paid for what they do, that’s just how it is and its not going to change unless people stopped showing up completely to events.

Personally, I don’t mind if Pujols does well, he seems like a stand-up guy and does a lot for the communities he plays in.

I started looking at numbers for the other big signings in the offseason, and after looking at Prince Fielder’s numbers this year in the AL compared to last year in the NL I think Pujols might have a point. While Fielder’s numbers are nowhere as horrendous as Pujols’ numbers, they are still down.

Fielder’s batting average is 30 points lower, he has 12 less RBIs, 7 less extra base hits, 2 less homers, and five more strike outs through 27 games. His average is currently at .300, but has dipped as low as .284, which he never saw anything-below .330 last season during his first 27.

I’m not saying Fielder is having a bad season, but his numbers are down since moving to the AL, which adds merit to Pujols’ comments.

What adds greater merit is Adam Dunn last season. Dunn was mister consistent like Pujols in the NL, you would write in 38 homers and 100 RBIs without even thinking about it, and then he signed for big money with the White Sox and poof!

His first year was a disaster with 11 homers, 42 RBIs, and a .159 batting average, could this be right? For six straight years the man’s lows were 38 homers, 92 RBIs, and a .234 batting average. How could this happen?

Some stories were Dunn came in out of shape, but most players and scouts scoffed at this notion. Another story that came out during Waddle and Silvy’s Lunch with a Legend featuring Ozzie Guillen was that Dunn had lost his swing from the moment he stepped foot into Sox camp. Guillen shared a story that Greg Walker allegedly walked into his office the first day Dunn took swings and told Ozzie, “Have you seen Dunn, we have a problem.” Ozzie claimed to have brushed it off saying something like, “he’s a veteran he’ll be fine.” We know that was not the case, and I wondered how much truth there was to that story, I think Ozzie may have been trying to save face for the unemployed Walker.

Could it have been that Dunn was not use to AL pitching? Did it take him a year to adjust? He’s well on his way to crushing last year’s numbers; he has 9 homers and 23 RBIs already this season and seems to be heating up. His current projections are 52 homers and 133 RBIs, which we all know are bloated. I’m thinking 38/100 would be safe again this season.

Meanwhile, Fielder’s on pace for 24 homers and 78 RBIs, and what about Prince Albert? Are you sitting down? Pujols is on pace for six homers and 39 RBIs with a .196 batting average.

What do any of these projections mean? Absolutely nothing, they are just mathematical calculations for the sake of conversation and they are accurate about 25% of the time. Most veteran players up to around 34-35 years of age continue to make their numbers no matter how slow or how fast of a start they have.

In fact, Fielder had a start similar to his start in Detroit this season two years ago with Milwaukee before he went on to hit 32 homers, drive in 83 runs and walk a career high 114 times.

Pujols last season only had eight homers 58 games into the year before he went on a tear and ended the season with 37 homers and 99 RBIs, so beware impatient fantasy owners he could be starting his march to his average numbers.

When the season ends we’ll take a look back and see if Pujols and Fielder made their numbers, or if we will be penning another baseball expression aptly named, “The Donkey Effect.”

Tigers, White Sox, Giants all playoff bound?

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This may go down as the nerdiest baseball article that I ever write for this blog, but probably not as this will lead to more articles like this. My father in-law sent me an article a few weeks ago about how game 16-20 of the baseball season is when you can really predict the outcome of the season with some degree of accuracy.

This theory comes from the biggest baseball nerds, The Baseball Prospectus boys, and is covered in their latest book, EXTRA INNINGS More Baseball Between the Numbers from the Team at Baseball Prospectus. I adore this type of theory, not sure why, but it must go hand-in-hand with my love for baseball. That being said, I purchased the book, and immediately read the chapter, “When Does a Hot Start Become Real?”

I’m going to try to get to the gist of it to avoid boring many, but basically with the average wins and losses set at .500, you can accurately predict the end of season records of MLB teams within 8-games at game 16 according to the book. This formula (Current W%× 50% + .500 × 50% = W%) was derived using all seasons since 1962 when the 162-game schedule was adopted by both leagues. The strike-shortened seasons were excluded from the formula. When you get the 16th game of the season you can use the teams current winning percentage to accurately account for ½ the outcome over the league average of .500 as the mean. So if you’re playing .500 after 16 games the formula will have you finishing at 81-81. Since it’s a 50/50 formula it’s accurately predicted records ½ the time on average since 1962.

Obviously, the Red Sox rebounded last year to win 90 games, where the prediction was 66 wins, on the other hand the formula output 96 wins for Texas and that’s exactly what happened.

Something else that can be added to expand the accuracy of the formula is a three-year average win for a team, unless the team has had major roster turnover. So, when the Indians and Royals came out of the gate with a 12-4 and 10-6 starts respectively they were both playoff bound according to the formula, however if you take into account their recent histories with no significant team improvements being made it was safe to say it was a fluke; it was. The Tigers easily won the division with a dominant September.

The White Sox this season would fall under a team that has had a lot of turnover in the offseason with a lot of what-ifs that are returning positive numbers, so their average wins over the last three seasons would not be applicable for the reality of this number.

In Extra Innings they use the example of the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks who were predicted to win 77 games based on their three year average, but with so many unanswered questions with top prospects filling starting roles that should be weighted lighter than the normal 52 percent, putting a greater emphasis on their actual season record. The Diamondbacks won 90 games that year and made the playoffs.

Are you still awake? Anyway, that explains how the predictions below were calculated, which if they stand true I will have been very wrong in my preseason predictions.

We’ll take another look at this at the end of May to see what’s changed.

AL CENTRAL
Well, its going to be a dogfight between the Tigers and White Sox with them both predicted to win 91 games, the Indians calculated to 86 wins, but I would say that’s more optimism than reality. Two things that need to be taken into consideration, the Manny Acta factor and they’re fielding close to the exact same team that faded last season. The division is rounded out with the Twins at 66 wins and the team I never believed was going to compete this season, the Royals at 56 wins.

AL EAST
This entire division is up for grabs, and if you consider what happened last season with Boston it makes it even harder to say there’s a true winner. The Blue Jays and Yankees are both predicted to finish with 91 wins and the Rays and Orioles are predicted with 86 wins. The only team that would be considered a non-contender at this point would be the Red Sox at 68 wins, but again remember last year.

AL WEST
Well, the Texas Rangers are going to win this one in a laugher with 106 wins with the A’s and Mariners 30 games behind them at 76 wins. The Angels are predicted to only have 71 wins at this point. The Red Sox theory may apply to Angels this season, and lets not forget that the Rangers have some injury prone players. Still, looking at Texas right now it’s pretty easy to believe this outcome.

NL CENTRAL
No surprises here except the Cubs are expected to have 61 wins, nine better than Smitty’s post on our Facebook site the other day. The Cardinals are netting out at 96 wins with the Brewers and Reds both netting out at 76. The Pirates are calculated at 73 wins and the Astros with 71 wins. I still believe this division is up for grabs with either the Brewers and/or Reds making a strong push at some point this season.

NL EAST
The Nationals are calculated to have 101 wins; I don’t believe that for a second with the Braves behind them with 91 wins. Again, this is accurate within 8 games either way, which can make a big difference and probably will here. The Mets are at 81, the Marlins at 78, and the Phillies at the bottom with 76. I think the Phillies will make some noise and still believe the Braves will win this division.

NL WEST
Magic Johnson is working his magic already as the Dodgers are on fire! They are also slated for 101 wins with the Giants in second at 86 and the Rockies at 84 in third. The Diamondbacks are a close fourth at 81 and the Padres anchor the division at 61 wins. The Dodgers look really good right now, but this division will get tighter than predicted here. Still, I would not be surprised by a Dodgers division win.

AL Playoffs
Rangers
Tigers
Blue Jays
White Sox
Yankees

NL Playoffs
Nationals
Dodgers
Cardinals
Braves
Giants

When you look at the playoffs, it doesn’t look so crazy, does it? I did say in my preseason predictions that if everything clicked for the Blue Jays and White Sox they would be competing for their divisions. I think the biggest surprises for me are the Nationals and Dodgers, but let’s a take a look at the end of May where the weight on season record becomes even more of a reality.

Week One Report Cards: Cubs/Tigers

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Can we please put an end to the debate? There is no question Chicago is the greatest baseball town in the world.  In this first week of the season, not only did I have the privilege of getting sunburned and a bit intoxicated amongst the brick and ivy in the bleachers of baseball’s greatest cathedral last weekend (though I had to suffer through Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol defiling another solid start by Matt Garza), but I get to head down to Mobile Phone Park today to watch the Tigers avenge yesterday’s tough loss to the South Side nemesis.

Seven or eight games certainly isn’t enough of a sample size to draw any definitive conclusions about the long season ahead, but that’s not going to stop me from doing it here.

Cubs: C+
The Cubs 3-5 record masks what has been a surprisingly productive offense that ranks in the NL’s top five in Runs, RBI, and Avg. and better than average starting pitching. Despite poor outings by 4th and 5th staters Chris Volstad and Paul Maholm, Cubs starters have a combined 3.51 ERA with 50 Ks in 51.2 innings. Garza and  Ryan Dempster have both had quality starts spoiled by the bullpen which is the only thing keeping them out of first place in the division.  Is it too early to question the wisdom of the ‘Messiah’ Theo Epstein for trading one of the game’s best left-handed relievers in Sean Marshall for Travis Wood who is on a bus somewhere in Iowa now?  Nope.

Tigers: A-
It wasn’t hard to predict the Tigers would have a good offense, but to lead the AL or rank second in Runs, Hits, Triples, RBI, Avg, OBP, and SLG% is even more than I could’ve hoped for.  With an offense like that, the pitching only has to be average, which it has been, ranking in the middle of the AL with a 3.80 ERA despite having to rely on minor league call-ups Drew Smyly and today’s starter Adam Wilk due to Doug Fister‘s mysterious left side injury. Even the defense has been decent despite the lack of range.  The only thing that worries me is closer Jose Valverde who has already blown a save and couldn’t stop the bleeding when Justin Verlander inexplicably imploded after eight dominant innings on Wednesday.  Papa Grande needs to return to his 2011 form before I can give the Tigers full marks.

So now I’m off to 35th & Shields where the Sox have an awful record against staters they’ve never seen before—I’m sure PV has the numbers. A shaky Gavin Floyd looks to be the next punching bag for the Tigers potent offense. I’m just hoping Roger ‘Sodfather’ Bossard can draw the batter’s box correctly today.

Smitty’s Predictions: 2012

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The Tampa Bay Rays will complete their journey from perennial doormats to world champions.

Twenty-twelve will be a season of tempered expectations for the Cubs and Sox who are in varied states of rebuilding—the Cubs are a gut rehab and the Sox are in a hazy state of limbo. Things couldn’t be more opposite in Motown with the Tigers coming off an appearance in the ALCS, having the reigning AL MVP, Cy Young and Batting Champ in Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera respectively on the roster, plus the huge (literally) acquisition of Prince Fielder. It’s tough to contain the excitement coming out of Detroit these days.

When it comes to my predictions, I think I’m of the same mindset as the Cubs’ new front office—I’d really rather not dwell on the past and would much rather look to the future. I only predicted 2 out of 8 playoff teams in 2011 and while batting .250 would be like making the Hall of Fame to Adam Dunn, that’s simply not good enough. I was overly optimistic in 2010 and too pessimistic in 2011, so I think I’ve found the happy medium this year.

AL East Division Champions: Tampa Bay Rays
It’s still baffling to me how the Boston Red Sox could completely dismantle their proud organization just because of a three-week slump in September. Just think, If they had won only ONE MORE GAME, Theo Epstein wouldn’t be in Chicago, Terry Francona wouldn’t be working for ESPN and I would be picking the Sox to win the AL East for the second year in a row. It’s amazing how much crap a few beers and some KFC can create—believe me, I know. The balance of power has shifted away from the aging Yankees as most of their core is over 34 years old and now Andy Pettite is their savoir? I don’t think so. That power shift has headed straight south to Tampa. The Rays have the deepest rotation in the division and more than enough offense to take their third division crown in five years. I didn’t forget about the usually forgettable Toronto Blue Jays. They won’t win the division, but I’ll have more about them in a minute. As for the Orioles? You can definitely forget them.

AL Central Division Champions: Detroit Tigers
Of course I’m picking the Tigers, but I don’t think it’s going to be a 15+ game runaway as most have predicted. The Tigers certainly made a splash with the aforementioned Fresh Prince, but he’s just replacing Victor Martinez in the lineup so I’m not expecting a 10-game improvement over last year. The rest of the division isn’t just going to lay down and die. Sadly, the White Sox aren’t going to be as bad as many have said—there’s just too much dormant talent there. Dunn can’t be as lost as he was last year, can he? Will the real Alex Rios please stand up? Jake Peavy can’t really be this fragile? Cleveland was a beast for most of last season. The Twins still have Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (remember those guys?) so they are still another potential thorn in the side. Kansas City is the team that intrigues me the most. Losing closer Joakim Soria to Tommy John surgery is tough blow, and the rotation is thin, but the offense could be special this year with the bats of Billy Butler and everyone’s favorite fantasy league sleeper, Eric Hosmer.

AL West Division Champions: Texas Rangers
I love how everyone is wetting themselves over how the aging Albert Pujols is going to revitalize their #10-ranked offense in the AL.  The 10-year, $240 million deal for a 32 (ahem… more like 34) year old who’s numbers are already in decline will go down as the worst deal is the history of baseball.  Say what you will about similar deals to A-Rod and now Fielder, at least those guys were/are young enough to have their best years in front of them.  The Rangers are just way too strong in every facet of the game for anyone else in the division to compete with.

AL Wild Cards: Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees
The additional Wild Card might cause some logistical issues this first season since it was implemented after the schedule came out, but it will prove to be as successful as the original Wild Card has been and a welcome change placing much greater emphasis on winning your division.  The best division in baseball will take two more spots in this year’s playoffs with the Yankees making a big trade deadline deal for the final push and a very talented, yet overlooked Jays squad clawing their way in.

NL East Division Champions: Miami Marlins
I have to admit I could make arguments for four of the five teams in the NL East winning or losing the division, but I settled on the Marlins (much to my blogging counterpart’s chagrin, I’m sure). This is a watershed year for Miami as they have not only stolen the White Sox’ manager and ace, but also their “ALL IN” mentality.  The gaudy new rebranding, the audacious new stadium and massive new payroll are all part of owner Jeffrey Loria‘s last ditch effort to make baseball work in south Florida. Despite last night’s inauspicious debut, Miami has just too much talent across the board and too much on the line not to get it done.  The Phillies are battling injuries to Ryan Howard and Chase Utley so they are coming back to the pack despite their dominant rotation. The Braves are always in the mix somehow and maybe this is finally the year when all those #1 draft picks finally pan out fo the Nats.  I guess the only thing you can bank on is the Mets will suck (and still be in debt).

NL Central Division Champions: St. Louis Cardinals
I’m giving the hated Cardinals the nod only by default.  The Brewers have taken too many steps backwards to contend and Dusty Baker is sure to ruin a couple more young, promising arms in Cincinnati.  Of course I’m not expecting anything from the Cubs this year (but I’m looking forward to 2014) and I can’t even remember who else is in this shitty division.

NL West Division Champions: San Francisco Giants
It’s hard not to pick the Dodgers with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw on the roster and the dark cloud of the McCourt debacle lifted, but it’s going to be another year before Magic Johnson and Co. can turn things around completely—and then look out! Pitching is obviously the key to my choice here as SF has more than just about anyone in the league. A healthy Buster Posey will anchor an offense just good enough to get it done. Arizona will make another run at the division under the tutelage of my childhood hero, Kirk Gibson, but they will fall just short. Lucky for them, there’s an extra Wild Card now.

NL Wild Cards: Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks
With stalwarts like Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee at their disposal, it’s impossible to keep the Phillies out of the playoffs no matter what offensive obstacles they may face.  The D-backs proved they were for real last season and won’t disappoint this year with my annual NL MVP pick, Justin Upton leading the way.

World Series: Tampa Bay Rays over the San Francisco Giants in 5
It kills me not to pick the Tigers, but this won’t be their year.  Now 2013 will be a totally different story with V-Mart returning to Motown to create one of the greatest 3-4-5 combinations ever.  But I have to curb my enthusiasm for now and realize this is Tampa’s year to finally break through and make their journey from perennial doormats to world champions complete.

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, DET

AL Cy Young: David Price, TB

NL MVP: Justin Upton, ARI

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, PHI

A Dunn-like signing?

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Prince Fielder is a Detroit Tiger, an impressive move, equally as impressive as when the White Sox landed Adam Dunn last off-season. It looked like the Sox had solved their DH power-hitting problem and would be heading to the playoffs, instead the signing of Victor Martinez by the Tigers turned out to be the smart move. V-Mart owned the league with runners in scoring position and gave Miguel Cabrera the protection he needed.

Unfortunately for the Tigers V-Mart went down during sliding drills and will be lost for the 2012 season, so the Tigers turn to Fielder to fill the void. The question is will a switch of leagues and more time as a DH work out for Fielder or will he suffer the same issues that Dunn suffered in year one with the White Sox?

Smitty sent me text saying how he was trying to rationalize whether Fielder should bat in front or behind Cabrera and then just started laughing. I replied that it sounds like me last year when the Sox landed Dunn.

First thing to note about Fielder is he’s four years younger than Dunn and several scouts and Sox personnel eluded to the fact that an older Dunn might need to change his off-season regime. This and emergency appendectomy surgery are possibilities for Dunn’s lack of production in 2011, and many veterans have a rebound a year later after making several off-season adjustments. Obviously, all White Sox fans are hoping for this.

After you remove the four-year age difference the similarities are eerie between Fielder and Dunn. Their 162 game averages over their careers are almost identical; Fielder’s is 37 home runs, 106 RBIs, and a .282 average. Even with his terrible 2011 with Sox Dunn’s 162 game average is 38 home runs, 95 RBIs, and a .243 average.

I also decided to take a look at how each player faired in interleague play before switching leagues, so Dunn’s numbers are from 2010.

Fielder hit .294 against the AL last season with one homer, three doubles, and 11 RBIs. The one glaring stat is he faced the Twins in two series and hit only .227 with no homers and five RBIs.

Dunn’s numbers aren’t any more impressive, except that he hit four homers and drove in 16, but he also had 10 more at-bats that can be associated with strike-outs and fly-outs since he doesn’t walk a lot.

Despite the similarities in numbers I think Fielder is going to do just fine in a Tigers uniform especially since he’s a more disciplined hitter than Dunn. I think he’ll have a 10% drop off in home runs because of Comerica Park, but I also think those will could equate to doubles versus fly outs. Everything else statistics wise should stay the same, and let’s be honest a 10% drop off in home runs is only 2-4 less, no biggy.

This year doesn’t scare me as much as 2013, when V-Mart returns to the line-up that will probably go Fielder, Cabrera, Martinez, 3-4-5. Ouch!

HOLY SHIT!!! THE TIGERS JUST SIGNED PRINCE FIELDER!!!

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The Prodigal Son returns home.

I almost fell out of my chair when the news broke over the ESPN 1000 airwaves at 2:02 CST today.  I’m sure I startled my oblivious coworkers with the triumphant, stammering wail blasting out of my office, “HOLY SHIT!!! THE TIGERS JUST SIGNED PRINCE FIELDER!!!”  Needless to say, I was pretty fired up about today’s huge news out of the Motor City.

It’s patently obvious how desperately 82-year-old Detroit Tigers owner Mike Illich yearns to win a World Series after the pizza baron dished out $214 million to His Royal Colossusness.  Reaching the ALCS last year must have truly whet his appetite for a championship as the fact Illich would be 91 by the end of the nine-year deal (and most likely won’t be around by then) speaks volumes about how 2012 is go-for-broke season for the Tigers.

Soon after my workplace outburst, basking in a giddy euphoria, a fellow Tigers fan co-worker and I started speculating whetther Fielder would bat in front of or behind the mighty Miguel Cabrera. Then we just started laughing at what a ridiculously awesome dilemma Jim Leyland has just been confronted with. If only all our problems were so “difficult” to deal with.

The only real issue to be determined is the classic question: Who’s on First?  Preliminary reports have Fielder manning 1B, moving Cabrera to his former postion at the Hot Corner, but I don’t buy it.  Moving Cabrera to third would create an infield with almost no defensive range with the sure-handed, but limited Jhonny Peralta at short.  I think Cabrera is destined for left field where many a Hall of Fame slugger has found a home.  And I’m sure Cabrera and Fielder will spend time at DH, rotating in and out with Delmon Young.

There’s also the question of what to do with Victor Martinez when he comes back in 2013.  But if that question doesn’t bother the man holding the purse strings, it doesn’t bother me.  That’s an issue for another day. However Leyland decides to distribute his embarrassment of riches, these are truly great times to be a Tigers fan.

Reyes would look good in a Tigers jersey

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With close to $30 million coming off the top of what was already a relatively modest 2011 payroll of $106 million, the Tigers are in a great position to go after New York Mets’ superstar shortstop Jose Reyes this offseason if they so choose—and I hope they do so choose.

The leadoff spot should be the Tigers’ number one priority this offseason. A backup catcher, middle relief and second base are definitely other issues the Tigers need to address, but those are relatively easy to solve by comparison. The 1-hole was the glaring weakness in what was otherwise a very potent offense, finishing in the top four in the Majors in just about every category this season.

While Austin Jackson is a very talented young player, his 181 strikeouts and a .317 OBP just didn’t cut it as a leadoff hitter. He will be better served batting later in the order under less pressure. Reyes, on the other hand, would be the proverbial straw that stirs the Tigers’ drink as a prototypical leadoff hitter they have lacked. The reigning NL batting champ would provide the consistent bat and speed at the top of the order that would drive opposing pitchers inane and spark an already dangerous offense.

Acquiring Reyes would also help solve Detroit’s ongoing 3B issue by sending All-Star shortstop Jhonny Peralta over to the hot corner. Peralta is no stranger to third. The Indians moved him there—albeit begrudgingly—in 2009 as part of a rebuilding project that eventually led to him being traded to the Tigers. His acerbic relationship with then-Indians’ manager Eric Wedge and the losing atmosphere in Cleveland led to his discontent, but neither would be issues in Detroit.  Manager Jim Leyland and Peralta have a strong relationship, plus he would only have to look across the diamond at reigning AL batting champ Miguel Cabrera for an example of a star player whose ego wasn’t bruised by moving from his preferred position to make the team better.

The expiring contracts of Magglio Ordonez ($10M), Carlos Guillen ($13M), Brad Penny ($3Ml), Joel Zumaya ($1,4M), and Ramon Santiago ($1.25M) coupled with GM Dave Dombrowski’s shrewd construction of a talented young roster with few obvious flaws gives the Tigers a lot of flexibility going into this offseason. Granted, the club still needs to deal with arbitration-eligible pieces like Delmon Young, Rick Porcello, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke, Ryan Perry, and Don Kelly and faces a pay raise to Justin Verlander, but those deals will still leave them far under the $130 million owner Mike Ilitch has shown he’s been willing to spend on more than one occasion.

Ilitch himself sounds ready to pounce. The 82-year-old billionaire owns a vast pizza empire and four Stanley Cups with the Red Wings, but nearing the end of his life, he now covets a World Series ring more than anything. In recent interviews, he’s made it clear he’s willing to do whatever it takes to get one.

“I’m challenged to keep it there like the Yankees and the Red Sox. I haven’t totally zeroed in on our payroll yet. What I’m still trying to figure out is what we need for next year. I want to be in a position to make one or two additions, and generally, they’re pretty big additions.”

The timing couldn’t be better as the Tigers have never been so stacked with young talent and are poised to contend for years to come. One or two “big additions” should be all it would take to put them over the top. If Ilitch—and this Tigers fan—gets his way, Reyes #7 jerseys could be the hottest-selling gifts this Christmas in the Motor City.