Giants round-up

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ImageThe Giants are starting to look like the team I thought they were at the start of the season, especially with the welcomed return of the real Tim Lincecum this past week. “The Freak” looked impressive in Saturday pitching eight innings of three hit ball with five strikeouts and no earned runs. He did have some control problems early that lead to four walks, but he settled in nicely. Before I start popping the champagne bottles I do realize that it’s the San Diego Padres, a team with a sporadic offense at best. Still, with the way Lincecum started the year he would not have been able to beat the Padres if things did not improve.

Madison Bumgarner handled the Padres quite easily yesterday allowing one run over 7-2/3 innings with six strikeouts, six hits, a walk and a run. At the moment, it looks like Santiago Casilla has taken over the closer duties for the Giants in the absence of Brian Wilson. Casilla has successfully completed his four save opportunities, which is another good sign for the Giants.

Under the weird baseball moments, Aubrey Huff suffered a nervous breakdown last week and has not played since. This allowed Buster Posey to play first on Sunday, a day he would have normally had off. Even though Huff has been placed on the 15-day DL, there is no timetable for his return. While a lot of people equate money with happiness, there’s no reason to be unsympathetic towards Huff because he’s making $11 million this year. I look at this way, mo’ money mo’ problems, right?

No one really know what’s happening in his personal life, so to call into a sports radio program and say things like, “what’s he got to worry about, he’s making $11 million a year,” is purely idiotic.

When the Giants return to play on Tuesday Matt Cain will be on the hill against Miami Marlins’ pitcher, Ricky Nolasco.

Pep talk pays off for Floyd

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Sometimes all a player needs is a little vote of confidence from a fan, and that may have been the case for Gavin Floyd, who pitched brilliantly on Sunday afternoon after I had brief conversation with him on Saturday. I’m not taking full credit for his performance because he has great stuff; he just loses his concentration at times and it leads to big innings.

So, I’m shopping at Target on Saturday with my family and I make eye contact with this rather large gentleman who looks very familiar to me. I’m wearing a Sox cap, so he probably realizes what’s about to happen. I say to my wife excited like a giddy schoolgirl, “holy shit, that’s Gavin Floyd,” I did qualify it with White Sox pitcher, so I didn’t get that blank look.

“Go say something to him,” she replied. At first, I wasn’t going to because I didn’t want to bother him, but I said “to hell with it.”

“Sorry to bother you, I just want to shake your hand I’m a big fan.” Floyd smiled and wiped his hand off on his pants after grabbing some frozen food out of the freezer to shake my hand.

“Oh wow, thanks, I appreciate it,” he said still smiling while shaking my hand. My hand looked like my sons hand in mine while shaking his. Big hands I know you’re the one.

“Good luck on Sunday. I have you on my fantasy team, so do a good job for me,” I said with a smile while giving him a manly pat on the back. He laughed and nodded.

Floyd took that conversation with him to the mound and pitched a no-hitter into the 7th inning before giving way to the bullpen after getting into a little trouble and allowing one run.

The White Sox offense was a refreshing site on Sunday in contrast to Saturday when they stranded eight runners in route to a 1-0 loss behind a complete game from Jake Peavy. The White Sox definitely pitched well enough to win the last two games; unfortunately they did not hit well enough and only took one.

Adam Dunn crushed a ball in the first to give the White Sox a 3-0 lead over the Red Sox, which was all they would need. That was Dunn’s first homerun at US Cellular Field this year and fifth overall. Dunn’s numbers are a big improvement over last year’s at this point. In 2011, he was hitting .171 with three homers, two doubles, and 12 RBIs. Dunn is currently hitting .231 with five homers, seven doubles, and 16 RBIs. The 60 points and increased power numbers are a welcomed sign.

The Sox ended April with a win and are only a game behind the Indians in the AL Central and are tied with the Tigers. The Sox did not get their 11th win until game 30 in 2011, which puts them on a much better pace than last season.

Looks like the weather will be summer-like for the upcoming Indians series, which usually leads to an increase in homers from the White Sox, let’s hope that holds true this season.

 

The anti-perfect, Phil Humber

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It looks like the Boston Red Sox are on their way to blowing the Baseball Prospectus 16-game prediction formula out of the water again this year, as the Red Sox pounded the White Sox, 10-3 at US Cellular Field.

I feared this going into this series when I started research for my post the other day, Tigers, White Sox, Giants all playoff bound? The Red Sox are currently mirroring the 2011 season, as they went 5-11 in their first 16 and are on a four game winning streak in 2012. They won a fifth game in 2011 to pull within a game of .500 before losing and playing around .500 for the next month or so. They eventually put it into overdrive, but too much beer and fried chicken ended their playoff hopes in 2011. I’m sure with Bobby Valentine at the helm there will be a healthier alternative to fried chicken, like a wrap? Valentine claims to have invented the wrap when he was a cook per a customer’s request. This is not a joke; he actually believes he invented the wrap. Who am I to say, maybe he did, but it seems silly coming out of the mouth of a MLB manager.

Phil Humber did not look anywhere near perfect last night as he started the game in a 2-0 hole, and things just continued to spiral out of control from there. The fly ball that cleared the fence for a Kevin Youkilis grand slam was definitely wind aided, as there was a strong wind blowing out to right. That’s what makes the pitch curious to me; hammer him in so he has no chance to take the pitch to right. Humber was having control problems most of the evening, so maybe AJ called for it in and he left out over the plate.

The White Sox offense had several threats but could not bust through to make the game interesting. It was good to see them still playing hard even though the game was out of hand, something new this season with Robin Ventura at the helm. The bullpen turned in a solid performance allowing only one-run in the ninth inning over four innings pitched.

I’m not surprised by Humber’s performance since the guy has a few things on this mind, having had my first child just shy of a year ago, I can tell you its hard to stay focused knowing that any minute your wife can go into labor. Add the pressure of all the press from pitching a perfect game, and it’s a lot for a person to handle. There also is no love for a curveball pitcher on a night when its 39 degrees at game time, the ball tends not to break, which is exactly what happened to Humber. Hopefully, when Humber’s turn in the rotation comes up again early next week he will have had the birth of his child and can focus on baseball again.

The way I look at this series is if the Sox starting pitching can continue to pitch well, not including last nights performance, then the White Sox can easily take the next three games. Even if the Red Sox are mirroring 2011 we will split the series at worst-case scenario. Let’s GO WHITE SOX!!!!

All-Star Ballot FAIL

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The 2012 All-Star Ballot is already out, so just to be an asshole, I thought I’d vote for the most undeserving candidates possible.  My favorite vote went to Marlon Byrd whose impressive stat line reads .085 AVG, 0 HR, and 2 RBI, but the kicker is that he’s still listed on the NL side of the ballot. Beyond that, just take a look at what sorry lineups we theoretically could be forced to watch this July 10 on FOX—what a joke.

Tigers, White Sox, Giants all playoff bound?

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This may go down as the nerdiest baseball article that I ever write for this blog, but probably not as this will lead to more articles like this. My father in-law sent me an article a few weeks ago about how game 16-20 of the baseball season is when you can really predict the outcome of the season with some degree of accuracy.

This theory comes from the biggest baseball nerds, The Baseball Prospectus boys, and is covered in their latest book, EXTRA INNINGS More Baseball Between the Numbers from the Team at Baseball Prospectus. I adore this type of theory, not sure why, but it must go hand-in-hand with my love for baseball. That being said, I purchased the book, and immediately read the chapter, “When Does a Hot Start Become Real?”

I’m going to try to get to the gist of it to avoid boring many, but basically with the average wins and losses set at .500, you can accurately predict the end of season records of MLB teams within 8-games at game 16 according to the book. This formula (Current W%× 50% + .500 × 50% = W%) was derived using all seasons since 1962 when the 162-game schedule was adopted by both leagues. The strike-shortened seasons were excluded from the formula. When you get the 16th game of the season you can use the teams current winning percentage to accurately account for ½ the outcome over the league average of .500 as the mean. So if you’re playing .500 after 16 games the formula will have you finishing at 81-81. Since it’s a 50/50 formula it’s accurately predicted records ½ the time on average since 1962.

Obviously, the Red Sox rebounded last year to win 90 games, where the prediction was 66 wins, on the other hand the formula output 96 wins for Texas and that’s exactly what happened.

Something else that can be added to expand the accuracy of the formula is a three-year average win for a team, unless the team has had major roster turnover. So, when the Indians and Royals came out of the gate with a 12-4 and 10-6 starts respectively they were both playoff bound according to the formula, however if you take into account their recent histories with no significant team improvements being made it was safe to say it was a fluke; it was. The Tigers easily won the division with a dominant September.

The White Sox this season would fall under a team that has had a lot of turnover in the offseason with a lot of what-ifs that are returning positive numbers, so their average wins over the last three seasons would not be applicable for the reality of this number.

In Extra Innings they use the example of the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks who were predicted to win 77 games based on their three year average, but with so many unanswered questions with top prospects filling starting roles that should be weighted lighter than the normal 52 percent, putting a greater emphasis on their actual season record. The Diamondbacks won 90 games that year and made the playoffs.

Are you still awake? Anyway, that explains how the predictions below were calculated, which if they stand true I will have been very wrong in my preseason predictions.

We’ll take another look at this at the end of May to see what’s changed.

AL CENTRAL
Well, its going to be a dogfight between the Tigers and White Sox with them both predicted to win 91 games, the Indians calculated to 86 wins, but I would say that’s more optimism than reality. Two things that need to be taken into consideration, the Manny Acta factor and they’re fielding close to the exact same team that faded last season. The division is rounded out with the Twins at 66 wins and the team I never believed was going to compete this season, the Royals at 56 wins.

AL EAST
This entire division is up for grabs, and if you consider what happened last season with Boston it makes it even harder to say there’s a true winner. The Blue Jays and Yankees are both predicted to finish with 91 wins and the Rays and Orioles are predicted with 86 wins. The only team that would be considered a non-contender at this point would be the Red Sox at 68 wins, but again remember last year.

AL WEST
Well, the Texas Rangers are going to win this one in a laugher with 106 wins with the A’s and Mariners 30 games behind them at 76 wins. The Angels are predicted to only have 71 wins at this point. The Red Sox theory may apply to Angels this season, and lets not forget that the Rangers have some injury prone players. Still, looking at Texas right now it’s pretty easy to believe this outcome.

NL CENTRAL
No surprises here except the Cubs are expected to have 61 wins, nine better than Smitty’s post on our Facebook site the other day. The Cardinals are netting out at 96 wins with the Brewers and Reds both netting out at 76. The Pirates are calculated at 73 wins and the Astros with 71 wins. I still believe this division is up for grabs with either the Brewers and/or Reds making a strong push at some point this season.

NL EAST
The Nationals are calculated to have 101 wins; I don’t believe that for a second with the Braves behind them with 91 wins. Again, this is accurate within 8 games either way, which can make a big difference and probably will here. The Mets are at 81, the Marlins at 78, and the Phillies at the bottom with 76. I think the Phillies will make some noise and still believe the Braves will win this division.

NL WEST
Magic Johnson is working his magic already as the Dodgers are on fire! They are also slated for 101 wins with the Giants in second at 86 and the Rockies at 84 in third. The Diamondbacks are a close fourth at 81 and the Padres anchor the division at 61 wins. The Dodgers look really good right now, but this division will get tighter than predicted here. Still, I would not be surprised by a Dodgers division win.

AL Playoffs
Rangers
Tigers
Blue Jays
White Sox
Yankees

NL Playoffs
Nationals
Dodgers
Cardinals
Braves
Giants

When you look at the playoffs, it doesn’t look so crazy, does it? I did say in my preseason predictions that if everything clicked for the Blue Jays and White Sox they would be competing for their divisions. I think the biggest surprises for me are the Nationals and Dodgers, but let’s a take a look at the end of May where the weight on season record becomes even more of a reality.

Week Two Recap: White Sox/Giants

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What a week in baseball or should I say the weekend in baseball. The biggest news is Phil Humber’s perfect game for the White Sox, the 21st in MLB history. For me a close second is the Sox are only 1/2 game behind the Tigers for the AL Central lead, although they did get some help from a bad call in the 10th inning that went in the Rangers’ favor. Still, the Sox swept Seattle.

Saturday was a crazy day for sports as a whole, as the Giants added to the madness by tying the Mets in the ninth with a two-out routine pop-up that turned into a two-run double as it fell between three Mets’ players. Unfortunately, a questionable slide took Posey’s left ankle out and caused an errant throw that headed up the first baseline allowing the winning run to score.

Minutes later the Sox game began and history was made, phew!

White Sox Recap      Grade: B

Looks more and more like Jim Leyland was correct in his assessment of the White Sox last week. It was a strange week for the Sox fans watching them drop three of four to the Orioles at home before sweeping the Mariners this weekend that included Humber’s perfect game moving them within a 1/2 game of first place. Both the Tigers and Sox should probably both get an “A” compared to where they were at this time last season, the Tigers had just reached .500 and the Sox were four games under. A much improved start to 2012 for both teams, but Sox had trouble at home against the Orioles that’s unforgivable. The biggest issue was game one of the series where the bullpen allowed 9 runs from the 8th – 10th preventing Humber from his first win of the season. Maybe, after watching that Humber decided he needed to go the distant to preserve a win, so he decided to throw a perfect game.

The other issues with the Sox are the usual slow starts of Gavin Floyd and John Danks. Floyd worked hard to allow only five runs in his performance in Thursday’s game and Danks survived Seattle to escape with the win yesterday. It’s time for these guys to step-up and perform like they are capable of performing.

It is good to type that Jake Peavy seems to be back and is pitching like the ace of the staff, he takes a 2-0 record with a 2.75 ERA into tonight’s game against the Oakland A’s.

There are lots of good things happening offensively for the White Sox, AJ Pierzynski is number 4 on the RBI list in the AL (tied with three players), while Dunn is right behind him at #7 (tied with three players). I guess the production problems from left-handed hitters exited the White Sox organization with Ozzie Guillen.

Three thru six are producing for the Sox, which had to happen for them to have success this season, Dunn has 13 RBIs, 6 doubles, and 3 homers with a .246 avg; Konerko has 11 RBIs, 6 doubles and 3 homers with a .362 avg; Pierzynski has 14 RBIs and 4 homers with a .348 avg; and Rios has 7 RBIs, 3 doubles, and homer with a .333 avg. Pretty good production from the heart of the order.

It’s the Sox and Tigers for the division if things continue like this, let’s go SOX!

Jake Peavy(2-0) takes on the surprising Bartolo Colon(3-0) tonight in Oakland at 9:05 pm CST.

Giants Recap                        Grade: B

Well, the week started off with a dud as Tim Lincecum versus Roy Halladay had more offense than anyone anticipated. Lincecum struggled to get through six innings even though he looked good at times. Hopefully this was the tune-up start before he returns to form.

The incredible game was Matt Cain against Cliff Lee, as Cain went 9 innings and Lee went 10 before the Giants won 1-0 in the 11th inning. Cain was almost as brilliant as he was in his one-hitter the prior weekend, allowing only two hits and one walk over the nine innings. Cain has made a total rebound from his debut outing allowing no runs over his last 18 innings pitched. The pitching staff has looked solid again, except for Lincecum who has a chance to redeem himself today against the Mets in a scheduled doubleheader. This is a classic doubleheader when the second game will begin about 1/2 hour after game one ends. Do you get to drink the whole time?

The Giants offense continued to score at least four runs in three of their five games this week, the two games they didn’t were against Halladay and Lee, so that’s excusable. The Giants went 3-2 during the rain shorten week, not bad. Things are pointing in the right direction.

The Freak(0-2) vs. Miguel Batista(0-0) this afternoon at Citi Field at 3:10 pm CST.

Theo’s Plan in Full Swing

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Trading the aged and declining Marlon Byrd is another step in the right direction.

The 4-12 Chicago Cubs certainly haven’t given fans anything to boast about thus far in 2012, but it’s rather impressive to look at what Theo Epstein & Co. have done with the pile of garbage they inherited from the previous regime and see how quickly they’ve been able to implement and begin to execute significant parts of their plan to rebuild the inept franchise from the ground up.

Yesterday’s trade of 34-year old Marlon Byrd to the Boston Red Sox was the latest step in the plan to rid themselves of older players who are clearly not part of the Cubs’ future. Byrd’s initial enthusiasm and effort after joining the club in 2010 was slowly replaced by indifference and sub-par production, culminating in his paltry three singles in 43 at-bats to start this season. Tom Ricketts will have to eat most of his $6.5 million salary due him, but he’s got the money and Byrd is clearly in severe decline. To be able to further pillage the desperate, spiteful, and spiraling Red Sox for promising 25-year old, left-handed reliever Michael Bowden and a player to be named is just icing on the cake.

The housecleaning started a mere two months after the new braintrust took office with the jettison of North Side pariah Carlos Zambrano. Big Z’s welcome was more than worn out in Chicago, though he was always great fodder for this blog.  Any production out of Chris Volstad will be worth it and even though it cost the team $15 million to send Carlos’ sorry ass down to Miami, it was money well spent.

Next up in the gut-rehab project should be trading the recently DL-ed Ryan Dempster and his mildly amusing Harry Caray impression. The jocular Canadian has been a cornerstone fo the staff for years as a closer and starter with 87 saves, 62 wins, and a 3.83 ERA over his eight-year career with the Cubs. But at age 34, he’s simply not part of the future. A quick return from his strained right quadriceps will go a long way toward boosting his trade value by  the deadline to a playoff contender looking for pitching depth.  Get healthy Demp!

The coup de gras will be finally moving Alfonso Soriano and the three years and $54 million left on his albatros of a contract that Jim Hendry saddled the club with.  It would take a miracle for Epstein to ever pull that off, but hey—they said the same thing about the Red Sox ever winning another World Series.

So at least there are a few positive signs for Cubs fans to look at just 16 games into what everyone knows is a lost season.  This is going to be a long process, but the process has definitely started.