Tag Archives: ALDS

On to the ALCS!!!

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Now that the smoke has cleared and i’ve finally recovered from the three-and-a-half-hour heart attack of an incredible Game 5, I’ve had a little time to collect my euphoric thoughts.  First of all, PV hit it on the nose when he said I’d be drinking a victorious brew about 10:45pm on Thursday evening.  It was 10:43.  Plus, I hit it on the nose (bad night for that nose) when I said the Tigers would win the seires in 5 games because of their superior starting pitching depth.

Tigers starting pitchers combined for a 3.46 ERA over 26 innings compared to 5.18 over 19.1 innings for the Yankees over the course of the series.  If not for Curtis Granderson pulling off a couple of miracle catches in Game 4, it would’ve been a much wider margin.  Despite a shaky Game 1 relief appearance on Saturday, Doug Fister returned to his September AL Pitcher of the Month status last night, throwing five strong innings, getting key outs when he had to, and only giving up a solo shot to Robinson Cano. Rick Porcello went a solid six innings in his outing while Max Scherzer was back to his “ace-like” self, stymieing the Bronx Bombers to only one run over seven and a third with seven Ks between his two appearances.  Oh yeah, and there’s that Verlander guy—he’s pretty good.

So now it’s on to Texas for the Tigers’ second American League Championship Series in five years.  I was sad to learn that the series is moving to FOX from TBS where we were enlightened by color analyst Ron Darling and all his insightful gems like “pitching is importan in the postseason” and “I’m surprised Fister is going after Gardner like this with the bases loaded and a full count.”  Thanks Ron.  It says a lot about the value of a Yale education—they’ll give a degree to just about any douchebag. But I digress…

On to the Tigers/Rangers matchup where Detroit took six of nine regular season meetings, outscoring Texas by a 45-37 margin.  The Rangers have long been known for their prodigious power but have only recently put a priority on pitching under the leadership of team owner Nolan Ryan. It’s certainly worked for the reigning AL champs as this is their second ALCS in two years. However, as was the case with the Yankees, the Texas’ starting rotation simply doesn’t match the depth of that of the Tigers. Furthermore, Detroit’s right-handed-heavy lineup will feast on Texas primarily left-handed rotation.

Game 1 will feature that Verlander guy you may have heard of versus C.J. Wilson at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.  Wilson had great numbers during the regular season, going 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA and just over 200 strikeouts.  But he was absolutely rocked for eight runs (six earned) including three long balls by the Rays in his only appearance in the ALDS.  Look for huge games by Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta and Delmon Young against the lefty in that band box.

Beyond that, rotations haven’t been announced but Scherzer only threw want amounts to be a 32-pitch side session between starts last night so he’ll be more than ready for Sunday’s Game 2.  Fister would be fully rested for Game 3 on Tuesday and should finally be treated to a home start after being thrown to the wolves of Yankee Stadium twice in the last week.  Leyland’s seemingly insane plan to hold Verlander out of last night’s game may prove to be a genius move, keeping the soon-to-be MVP very rested and available to possibly start Games 4 and 7* (*if necessary) in addition to Game 1 on reasonable rest.

I’m sticking with what worked for me in the ALDS and picking the Tigers to win in five again and make their second World Series in five years.  Let’s just hope the outcome is a little kinder this time (and hope the Cardinals lose tonight!).

Nostra Verde = Game 5

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I predict the Yankees will lose game 4! Whoops!

Not sure how I missed this, but I did. I’m not shocked at all by the Yankees performance on Wednesday after reading that MLA poster boy, Jose Valverde aka Nostra Verde aka Nostra Grande predicted the series would be over in four games. Why Jose, why?

There’s no reason to motivate a team that is some how already motivated despite having been to the playoffs for the last two decades, no reason whatsoever. Jose could not keep his mouth shut and here we are today counting down to game 5 of the ALDS. After reading this I think the advantage has swung back to the Yankees. Players never learn to keep their mouths shut in these situations, and it seems to almost always backfire. I’m not the least bit surprised as Valverde’s antics on the mound are ridiculously annoying.

Nostra Verniere predicts that Nostra Verde will not pitch in save situation tonight.

Welcome to my nightmare

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Base hit after base hit after base hit after base hit… The nightmare of the Yankees’s (a.k.a. “Gas-House Gorillas”) 8th inning kept me up all night.  Even more unsettling were the repeating images of the two circus catches by former Tigers hero Curtis Granderson that bailed out A.J. Burnett and sent the ALDS back to New York for Game 5* (*now very necessary).

Burnett must’ve had a horseshoe up his ass because he looked like anything but a major league pitcher before Granderson’s heroics.  TBS’s Pitch Trax looked more like a Jackson Pollock painting with all the random dots and streaks sprayed erratically over the entire canvas during Burnett’s first inning.  The Tigers took advantage and patiently drew three walks while Burnett was working on his abstract design setting the stage for Don Kelly’s rocket shot to deep center.  Granderson, who had often remarked that he had trouble with balls hit directly at him at Comerica Park during his time as a Tiger, initially took a step or two in, underestimating Kelly’s power.  How Granderson recovered in time to snare a ball that was already over his head and behind him, I’ll never know.  Even after watching all the infernally incessant replays, I still don’t understand how it didn’t sail over his glove by at least six inches.

Regardless, the play clearly turned the tide and settled down Burnett who cruised until two outs in the 6th with a 4-1 lead. After giving up a single to Kelly (ironically enough) Burnett was relieved by the world’s highest-paid middle reliever Rafael Soriano who promptly gave up a tailing shot by Jhonny Peralta into the gap in left center. But Granderson was there again to bail out his brethren as he made another ridiculous diving catch to rob Peralta of extra bases, a sure RBI, and stem the tide of yet another Tigers rally.

Despite cosmic occurrences conspiring against him, the Tigers 22-year-old pitcher Rick Porcello did an admirable job keeping things close, giving up four runs on five hits while striking out five. The game was still in some doubt until the Gorillas’ merciless, 38 minute 8th-inning mauling.

But now we turn to Thursday’s Game 5* (*now very necessary) where there seems to be some silly controversy brewing on the blog. My counterpart insists that the Tigers send Justin Verlander out to start on two days rest while I maintain he will be more effective out of the bullpen to pick up where Septermber’s AL Pitcher of the Month Doug Fister (on full rest) leaves off.  Regardless, the debate is irrelevant because manager Jim Leyland agrees with my sound logic and has announced Fister is his Game 5 starter.

All bets are off as we head back to the Bronx.  PV does make some great points about the Yahkees woes in recent ALDSs so I’m still feeling pretty confident my prediction of Detroit in 5 will prove to be spot on.  I’ll certainly be drinking by 10:45 tomorrow night—I just hope it’ll be along with the Tigers in celebration.

Game 5 up for grabs

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Velverde performs ancient rain dance while Cabrera licks scotch from hand.

Even though I’ve been referred to by Smitty as a “hysterical blogger” for suggesting Jim Leyland do something as crazy as pitch his ace on short rest in a deciding game of the ALDS (like a lot of  managers do), I would hardly call it hysterical, just smart. After the Yankees base hit the Tigers into submission yesterday I would not leave my hopes of advancing to someone who’s pitched the worse in the series thus far. The other reason for Leyland not to pitch Fister is because of his history against the Yankees current line-up and bench; a .310 batting average with an .860 ops, and 13 RBIs. The Yankees starters have faced Fister in at least three games and account for 12 of the 13 RBIs including three homers, 5 doubles and a triple. Statistically it’s not a good match-up.

In Ivan Nova’s limited time in baseball that includes a relief appearance and one start against Detroit, he’s kept their hitter’s in check with a .219 batting average allowing no runs or extra base hits.

The other thing that history tells us is the Yankees haven’t fared all that well in the ALDS when it goes past three games, a very favorable stat for the Tigers. The Yankees have been to the playoffs every year since 1995 except 2008; that’s right, over the last 17 seasons they Yankees have been to the postseason 16 times including this season, of those visits when the ALDS went at least four games the Yankees have lost six out of 15 attempts. They’ve only won two game fives in the ALDS that date back to 2000-2001, but of the nine wins in the ALDS round four of those were sweeps, so the advantage increased dramatically when an opponent can extend the series. Well at least enough to give opponents a 6-5 record against the Yankees in the ALDS round, one of those winners was the Detroit Tigers in 2006. More recent history will tell you that the Yankees have not escaped this round in three of their last five visits when they did not sweep.

So what conclusion can you draw after reading this, that it’s all up for grabs in what should be an exciting Game 5 of the ALDS tomorrow evening. If recent history proves anything, then Smitty should be drinking a victorious brew about 10:45pm on Thursday evening.

Win today or lose on Thursday?

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Verlander not scheduled to start game 5* (*if necessary)

There’s nothing more to my headline, and I ask this question because I looked at the pitching match-ups for the next two games for the Yankees vs. Tigers and I’m puzzled at Game 5. Today’s match-up has big score written all over it as AJ Burnett takes on Rick Porcello in what could be the clinching game for the Tigers. The Tigers can easily hang with the Yankees in a slug fest, so it should be a fun game. While it would be nice for the Tigers and a large group of my friends for the Tigers to win today, I do not like to be wrong. What’s more puzzling is sending Fister back out if it goes to a game 5 and not Verlander. Fister did not perform well lasting only 4.2 innings and letting up six runs. You would put such a pivotal game in his hands? I certainly hope not, if it even comes to that. I hope Jim Leyland isn’t saving Verlander for game one of the ALCS. Does that sound familiar to anyone?

The good news for Tigers’ fans is that in Porcello’s one outing against New York this year, he won that game allowing only two runs over seven innings, while Burnett posted a 3.75 era against the Tigers this year in two outings going 1-1. Both pitchers faired well against each team, but that was back in April and May, before either of these offenses really got going. Still this is a pretty even match-up that looks to see a lot of offense tonight in Detroit Rock City! Will the Tigers end it tonight, I certainly hope so for Tigers’ fans because a Game 5 in Yankee Stadium spells certain doom. This one’s for Smitty, Vit, and Knopic… GO TIGERS!!!

Motown momentum shift

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Living in Chicago for the last 14 years has definitely rubbed off on me.  As Detroit’s Alex Avila slipped on the Yankees’s on-deck mat and missed an easy foul pop-up off the bat of former Tigers standout Curtis Granderson with two outs in the 9th,  I felt the familiar sense of dread I’ve felt watching so many Cubs games where a freak “Cubbie occurrence” at the worst possible moment would inevitably lead to disaster (eg. 2003 NLCS Game 6, 8th inning).

But it was with a greater sense of relief that I immediately realized these were the Tigers, not the hapless Cubs, and cosmic forces were not conspiring against them to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. Even when Granderson eventually walked to bring up the potential winning run in the form of RBI-machine Robinson Cano, I knew it was just a minor play and not the beginning of the end. Unblemished closer Jose Valverde could get the job done and did, inducing a Cano groundout to first, tying the series at one game apiece, and wresting home field advantage and momentum away from the Yankees.

Now the Tigers send soon-to-be MVP Justin Verlander to the mound to face off against Yankees’ ace CC Sabathia in a rematch of Friday’s rain-shortened Game 1.  It appeared the rainout would work to the advantage of New York as they pummeled the Tigers in Saturday’s resumption, 9-3. But, as I asserted in my ALDS preview, Detroit’s superior pitching depth would prove to be too much for the Yankees to handle, and now that advantage is even greater.

Not only do the Tigers get to send Verlander to his comfortable home mound instead of a hostile Yankee Stadium against Sabathia, but the rainout also ensured that neither would be available to pitch twice in the series, kicking the legs out from under New York manager Joe Girardi’s plan to hide his thin pitching staff.  Now Girardi is forced to expose the chronically mediocre A.J. Burnett (only two quality starts since the All-Star break) in Game 4 against Rick Porcello whose last five outings have all been QSs.

But when it really come down to it, it’s like the old baseball axiom goes: Momentum begins with the next day’s starting pitcher.  The Tigers just so happen to have the best in the world going in about two hours.  I like our chances.

We’ve only just begun…

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Perhaps lost in the malstrom of Wednesday night’s epic finishes and equally epic collapses on THE GREATEST NIGHT IN MLB REGULAR SEASON HISTORY is the fact that Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera won the American League batting title with a .344 average.

He joins pitching Triple Crown winner Justin Verlander (24 Ws, 2.40 ERA, 250 Ks—oh yeah, and he had the top WHIP of 0.92 for good measure) and Saves leader Jose Valverde (49 of 49) on one of the greatest Tigers rosters in the history of the illustrious franchise.

Winning 95 games for the 10th time in their 110 seasons, Detroit has fared quite nicely against each of the remaining AL teams. Of those 95 wins, 14% came against New York (4-3), Texas (4-2) and Tampa (5-1). They also come into the playoffs as the hottest team in the Majors, going 30-9 down the stretch.

But this is only the beginning.  Regular season accomplishments and accolades are meaningless if you don’t get it done on the big stage in the playoffs and it doesn’t get any bigger than Game 1 tonight in the Bronx.

Many have lamented the Tigers’ loss of home field advantage to Texas by one game, forcing them face the hallowed Yankees in the frist round. But this actually works to the Tigers’ advantage as they will only have to beat them three times in the shortened Division series instead of four in the ALCS.  They’re going to have to face them at some point so why not make it easier on themselve?  We only have to look back to 2006 to see it can work as the Tigers dismantled another 97-win Yankees club, three games to one.

As we all know, pitching wins championships and tonight’s heavyweight battle between Verlander and CC Sabathia should prove to be one for the ages. I could analyze the stats forever but the simple fact is JV-MVP is just better than CC and should prevail.  However, even if  the 2011 Cy Young winner falters or Tigers bats go quiet versus Carsten Charles, Detroit’s superior pitching depth will prove to be too much for the Yankees to handle.

Game 2 will feature September’s AL Pitcher of the Month Doug Fister versus an impressive, yet inexperienced 24-year-old Ivan Nova.  The matchup favors Detroit once again with Fister sporting a 2.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP vs. Nova’s 3.70/1.33.  No contest.

Monday’s Game 3 is where things get really interesting when the Tigers return home sending the mysterious heterochromiac Max Scherzer to the mound against Sweaty Freddy Garcia. We’re never sure if we’ll get Good Max when he’s using his blue eye or Bad Max when his brown eye takes over, but he always has the potential to dominate.  Garcia had been known as s Tigers killer throughout his career, but that reputation hasn’t held true lately as he’s 0-3 vs. Detroit since last September.

But the real key to Game 3, and possibly the whole series will actually be the off day, Sunday.  As long as Tigers’ brass can keep Garcia’s sweaty mits off his Venezuelan buddy Miguel Cabrera and out of any of the saloons the two used to haunt, the Tigers should be just fine.

If the Tigers need a fourth game, manager Jim Leyland has already announced he won’t send Verlander out on three days’ rest so it’ll be Rick Porcello vs. C.C. Sabathia.  I don’t like that matchup at all so let’s just hope it doesn’t come to that.  But it it does, the Tigers have the ultimate ace in the hole with Verlander waiting in the wings on his normal five days’ rest to face a completely overmatched Ivan Nova on short rest.  In the immortal words of the tiger-blooded Charlie Sheen: “WINNING!”

Final verdict: The Tigers’ superior pitching depth will prevail. I’ll be conservative and take the Tigers in 5.

2011 Playoff Predictions

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Well, after having a .750 winning percentage in my preseason predictions last season, I’m a mess this season. At the All-Star break everything was intact in the NL for me, while the Yankees and Indians continued to surprise with the Red Sox trading spots with the Yankees every few days and the Tigers and White Sox gaining on the Indians.

The one thing that I blew right off the bat was the Toronto Blue Jays winning the Wild Card. They were well out of it by June, in what looked like the Yankees and Red Sox both in the playoffs again. It seemed like the story for the NL East also, with Phillies and Braves would both make the playoffs. Then the craziest few minutes of baseball happened.

11:40pm – Atlanta loses and has blown a 10.5 game lead that they held over the Cardinals, Cards in the playoffs

12:02am – Papelbon blows the game for the Red Sox to the Orioles

12:05am – Evan Longoria hits the game winning home run to put the Rays in the playoffs over the Red Sox.

Best.Night.Ever. If you didn’t like the Wild Card before, you’d be insane not to love it after last night.

So needless to say, in a 25 minute time span I lost two of my predicted playoff teams, so I did not fair very well. Now I shall burn some more brain cells and try to guess my way through the playoffs. It worked last year, I called it 100% correctly through sound logic; good pitching. Here’s the problem, good pitching comes in the form of one or two startera per roster except for Philadelphia, Arizona, Milwaukee and Texas, yet pure power propelled the Yankees to the best record in the AL.

The Rangers have four starting pitchers with an ERA less than 4.00, the Yankees and Rays have three, and the Tigers have two but they are insanely low, Justin Verlander and Doug Fister. Verlander’s ERA is 2.40, but even more amazing is Fister’s ERA since joining the Tigers is 1.79 (2.83 for season) in 11 starts. Let me put it to you this way, if Verlander and Fister pitch like that in the playoffs; it’s over.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned teams in the NL match-up quite well, even the Cardinals do in a short series. The main question is “how big is the chip on the Phillies shoulder?” I’m not sure if it’s big enough…

NLDS

St. Louis vs. Philadelphia
Does LaRussa have any magic left after being the surprise story out of the NL Central this year, making up a 10.5 game deficit to catch the Braves for the NL Wildcard spot. With Carpenter having to pitch the Cards into the playoffs, the game one match-up of Kyle Loshe vs. Roy Halladay doesn’t seem fair. Phillies win this series with some drama.
Prediction: Phillies in 4

Arizona vs. Milwaukee
The Brewers went out and added solid veteran pitching to go along with their solid offense and the won the NL Central quite easily. Arizona is the surprise story of the year, stealing the AL West from the Giants this season. The Brewers have the advantage in this one because they have the more veteran staff.
Prediction: Brewers in 3

ALDS

Detroit vs. New York
The Yankees may have  a pitching staff that is actually better than the Tigers for an extended series, but in only a five game series you do not really need more than two solid pitchers, and the Tigers have that. However, I’m struggling with the Curtis Granderson effect and his incredible season. I can’t help but think that Granderson will come up big in this series and help the Yankees make another run. As much as this pains me, the Yankees win the series.
Prediction: Yankees in 5

Tampa Bay vs. Texas
Deja vu! The Rangers hold the home field advantage in this one this year, and the Rays are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, in fact, so hot they will upset the Rangers.The Rangers have a solid team, but sometimes you just go with the hot hand.
Prediction: Rays in 4

NLCS

Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
The aces of the Philly staff will fail again this year, I see no reason why they would not. The pressure to make up for last season will crush the Phillies and their fans again. The Brewers will power through the Phillies and keep their aging team in check.
Prediction: Brewers in 5

ALCS

Rays vs. New York
Yawn… I actually hope I can write how I was wrong and the Tigers are here, but I’m following my gut as I did last season, part statistics part feeling. Anyway, I think we know how this one ends, with the Yankees going to another World Series.
Prediction: Yankees in 5

The World Series

Brewers vs. Yankees
My second thought is I’m completely wrong and this is Philly vs. Detroit, but I’ll stick with my first instinct if for no reason other than pure laziness and having to rewrite the whole post. So, who wins this series? The teams match-up well, but can the Brewers beat the evil empire? I’m really not worried about being wrong after my horrible regular season predictions. I’m backing the Brew Crew!
Prediction: Brewers in 7