Tag Archives: MLB

Tigers, White Sox, Giants all playoff bound?

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This may go down as the nerdiest baseball article that I ever write for this blog, but probably not as this will lead to more articles like this. My father in-law sent me an article a few weeks ago about how game 16-20 of the baseball season is when you can really predict the outcome of the season with some degree of accuracy.

This theory comes from the biggest baseball nerds, The Baseball Prospectus boys, and is covered in their latest book, EXTRA INNINGS More Baseball Between the Numbers from the Team at Baseball Prospectus. I adore this type of theory, not sure why, but it must go hand-in-hand with my love for baseball. That being said, I purchased the book, and immediately read the chapter, “When Does a Hot Start Become Real?”

I’m going to try to get to the gist of it to avoid boring many, but basically with the average wins and losses set at .500, you can accurately predict the end of season records of MLB teams within 8-games at game 16 according to the book. This formula (Current W%× 50% + .500 × 50% = W%) was derived using all seasons since 1962 when the 162-game schedule was adopted by both leagues. The strike-shortened seasons were excluded from the formula. When you get the 16th game of the season you can use the teams current winning percentage to accurately account for ½ the outcome over the league average of .500 as the mean. So if you’re playing .500 after 16 games the formula will have you finishing at 81-81. Since it’s a 50/50 formula it’s accurately predicted records ½ the time on average since 1962.

Obviously, the Red Sox rebounded last year to win 90 games, where the prediction was 66 wins, on the other hand the formula output 96 wins for Texas and that’s exactly what happened.

Something else that can be added to expand the accuracy of the formula is a three-year average win for a team, unless the team has had major roster turnover. So, when the Indians and Royals came out of the gate with a 12-4 and 10-6 starts respectively they were both playoff bound according to the formula, however if you take into account their recent histories with no significant team improvements being made it was safe to say it was a fluke; it was. The Tigers easily won the division with a dominant September.

The White Sox this season would fall under a team that has had a lot of turnover in the offseason with a lot of what-ifs that are returning positive numbers, so their average wins over the last three seasons would not be applicable for the reality of this number.

In Extra Innings they use the example of the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks who were predicted to win 77 games based on their three year average, but with so many unanswered questions with top prospects filling starting roles that should be weighted lighter than the normal 52 percent, putting a greater emphasis on their actual season record. The Diamondbacks won 90 games that year and made the playoffs.

Are you still awake? Anyway, that explains how the predictions below were calculated, which if they stand true I will have been very wrong in my preseason predictions.

We’ll take another look at this at the end of May to see what’s changed.

AL CENTRAL
Well, its going to be a dogfight between the Tigers and White Sox with them both predicted to win 91 games, the Indians calculated to 86 wins, but I would say that’s more optimism than reality. Two things that need to be taken into consideration, the Manny Acta factor and they’re fielding close to the exact same team that faded last season. The division is rounded out with the Twins at 66 wins and the team I never believed was going to compete this season, the Royals at 56 wins.

AL EAST
This entire division is up for grabs, and if you consider what happened last season with Boston it makes it even harder to say there’s a true winner. The Blue Jays and Yankees are both predicted to finish with 91 wins and the Rays and Orioles are predicted with 86 wins. The only team that would be considered a non-contender at this point would be the Red Sox at 68 wins, but again remember last year.

AL WEST
Well, the Texas Rangers are going to win this one in a laugher with 106 wins with the A’s and Mariners 30 games behind them at 76 wins. The Angels are predicted to only have 71 wins at this point. The Red Sox theory may apply to Angels this season, and lets not forget that the Rangers have some injury prone players. Still, looking at Texas right now it’s pretty easy to believe this outcome.

NL CENTRAL
No surprises here except the Cubs are expected to have 61 wins, nine better than Smitty’s post on our Facebook site the other day. The Cardinals are netting out at 96 wins with the Brewers and Reds both netting out at 76. The Pirates are calculated at 73 wins and the Astros with 71 wins. I still believe this division is up for grabs with either the Brewers and/or Reds making a strong push at some point this season.

NL EAST
The Nationals are calculated to have 101 wins; I don’t believe that for a second with the Braves behind them with 91 wins. Again, this is accurate within 8 games either way, which can make a big difference and probably will here. The Mets are at 81, the Marlins at 78, and the Phillies at the bottom with 76. I think the Phillies will make some noise and still believe the Braves will win this division.

NL WEST
Magic Johnson is working his magic already as the Dodgers are on fire! They are also slated for 101 wins with the Giants in second at 86 and the Rockies at 84 in third. The Diamondbacks are a close fourth at 81 and the Padres anchor the division at 61 wins. The Dodgers look really good right now, but this division will get tighter than predicted here. Still, I would not be surprised by a Dodgers division win.

AL Playoffs
Rangers
Tigers
Blue Jays
White Sox
Yankees

NL Playoffs
Nationals
Dodgers
Cardinals
Braves
Giants

When you look at the playoffs, it doesn’t look so crazy, does it? I did say in my preseason predictions that if everything clicked for the Blue Jays and White Sox they would be competing for their divisions. I think the biggest surprises for me are the Nationals and Dodgers, but let’s a take a look at the end of May where the weight on season record becomes even more of a reality.

Stiff Competition: 2012 Predictions

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It’s that time of year again, baseball is back for its third opening of the season. Last week we had the “Opening Series” in Japan that 99% of America missed, last night we had “Opening Night” in Miami for the christening of the ugliest ballpark in baseball, and finally today is “Opening Day” with a staggered schedule as usual. Cubs open at home today and the Sox in Texas tomorrow afternoon.

The offseason moved a lot of teams into contention this season, and with the extra Wild Card team from each league added drama exists. A lot of predictions are two teams from the East and West in the playoffs from both leagues or three teams from the East. Let’s not be too hasty about both Eastern divisions. I know it’s only one game but the Marlins looked a lot like the 2011 White Sox and the Phillies are getting old.

AL East Division Champions: Tampa Bay Rays
Well, last year I had the Red Sox in this spot and talked about the Toronto Blue Jays as a team on the rise. The Blue Jays are going to make some noise in the division again this year, but do they have enough to power through the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. It’s almost unfair to be a team in this division. It’s a hard division to pick, but I’m going with the Rays because they are the most balanced and have younger players entering their prime. Of course, the Yankees need to also be considered and they were my original choice, but I’m thinking wild card for the mighty Yanks this season.

AL Central Division Champions: Detroit Tigers
Well, the White Sox still have “the makings of a World Series ball club” on paper, but until the move from paper to reality you can’t give them any credit after last season. Meanwhile, the Tigers have a solid returning nucleus, as well as adding Prince Fielder to help ease the blow of losing Victor Martinez for the season. Justin Verlander could be even better this season, which is a scary thought for opponents. The Tigers should win 93 games and the division. Everyone’s in love with KC, but I think it will be more of the usual from them and the Indians were still trying to change the team chemistry last week by adding Bobby Abreu, that’s not a good sign. If Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer have bounce back years the Twins will be right there, which is the same story for the White Sox with Adam Dunn, Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham. All teams in the AL Central will be more of an annoyance for the Tigers than a real contender for the division

AL West Division Champions: LA Angels of Anaheim
“How you cannot pick the Rangers to win this division is beyond me?” That’s what I wrote last year, but I’m not writing it this year. The Angels have risen to glory again with a pitching staff that’s stacked, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren, need I continue. The Rangers did add talent also with Yu Darvish and Mike Napoli, but their rotation has some questions, as well as Josh Hamilton falling off the wagon and the oft-injued Nelson Cruz. It should be a battle, but the Angels will win it. The A’s and Mariners made some improvements also in the offseason, but not enough to be real competition for these two powerhouses, just a nice surprise.

AL Wild Card: New York Yankees and Texas Rangers
It matters even less if you win the division other than home field advantage, which seems to matter less and less each year with baseball. I have to put the Yankees in the playoffs because they find a way to do it every year, and the Rangers will definitely be the other team as long as they stay healthy and Hamilton can stay focused. If not look at the Blue Jays or a surprise team to sneak in.

NL East Division Champions: Atlanta Braves
An older Phillies team will plague them in the second half of the season, and the Braves will be there with their mix of youth and veterans to win the division. All the youngsters on the Braves are another year older and another year better. The Miami Marlins seem very talented, but I’m not sure how well they will play for Ozzie Guillen. His coaching staffs seem to lack the ability to teach teams fundamentals, which will hurt them in the standings. It’s definitely a three team race, but the Braves will not fade in the second half this year, they will shine.

NL Central Division Champions: Milwaukee Brewers
This division could be up for grabs, I’m not sure which way to go on this. I think Milwaukee has the most solid rotation, but all the other teams in the division aren’t that far behind. The Reds might have the best offense in the division, and I would not completely dismiss the Pirates and the Cubs. The Cubs rotation looks pretty solid as well, but they have as many question marks as the White Sox. A hot start could aid them into becoming a real contender for the division. Even though the Cardinals won their Opening Night game against the Marlins, I just don’t look at their roster and think serious contender, oh wait, I did the same thing last year. Still, with all injuries already on that roster I don’t see them winning the division. I think it’s between Milwaukee and Cincinnati and I will give it to the Brewers again this season. I didn’t mention the Astros by design.

NL West Division Champions: San Francisco Giants
The Giants made some great moves in the offseason, including signing their talent to long-term contracts. The addition of Melky Cabrera will be a huge boost for them as well as getting Buster Posey back. They do have some real competition in the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a solid rotation and added the services of Jason Kubel in the offseason. The Giants will edge them out.

NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks
The Phillies have enough firepower and that rotation to keep them around for a Wildcard spot, and the Diamondbacks are a team on the rise. They could make some noise in the playoffs.

World Series: San Francisco Giants over the Detroit Tigers in 5
The Tigers are on the fast track to the World Series and the Giants will be waiting for them to win their second World Series in three years. The Giants pitching staff will tame the Tigers bats, and Tigers fans will asking each other why, why? Of course, they will take solace in the fact that V-Mart returns to their line-up in 2013 and they win the AL Championship and World Series in a laugher with some offseason starting pitching acquisitions.

AL MVP: Prince Fielder, Det

AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, LAA

NL MVP: Joey Votto, Cin

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, SF


In defense of expanded playoffs

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"IT'S A TOUP!!!"

Admiral Ackbar (a.k.a. “Bud Selig”) reared his ugly head last week by announcing he was taking over the L.A. Dodgers. If only he would’ve warned Dodgers owner, Frank McCourt before he married his crazy, cheating wife that “IT’S A TRAP!!!,” we might have been able to avoid this whole mess.

But while the Dodgers ownership issue is far too complicated and boring to get into here, the Admiral also expressed a far more interesting idea—expanding the  playoffs to include an additional Wild Card team in each league.

Ackbar mentioned two competing ideas for how it might work—a one-game playoff between the two non-division winners with the most wins, or a three-game series.  Both have intriguing possibilities, but the three-game series option seems to have far more logistical complications with scheduling and travel, home field advantage (do you give the team with the better record the first two games at home only to send the deciding game to the lower seed’s ballpark?), and would it give a disadvantage to a division winner who has to sit and wait for the Wild Card round to finish?

A one-game system seems the more obvious choice.  Adding Game 163 to the schedule will create fewer logistical or scheduling issues. Plus, we’ve already seen it twice in the last four years with the White Sox and Twins in 2008 and Tigers and Twins in 2009 facing off to determine the AL Central winner, producing two of the more memorable games of the decade (though I’d like to forget the 2009 result).  It would also give a very justified advantage to the eventual division-winning opponent by most likely forcing the Wild Card winner to use it’s #1 starter, thus making him unavailable to pitch two games in the subsequent short series.  And what better way to kick of the playoffs than with a Game-Seven-, one-and-done-, winner-take-all-type atmosphere is there in all of sports?

Most cynics (myself included) immediately see this as a thinly-veiled attempt to milk more revenue from MLB’s television partners by offering them more product.  But who cares?  More baseball fans would be treated to a regular season that is that much more exciting because of the heightened chance their team has of making the post-season.  Even with an additional Wild Card team in each league, MLB would still have the lowest percentage of teams making the playoffs among the four major sport with 33%. The NFL allows 37.5% while the NBA and NHL grant over half their league members post-season berths.

Most baseball “purists” that balked at the original Wild Card incarnation established in 1995 are crying foul at this new idea.  But just as they were forced to eat their words and admit the Wild Card system has been a wild success, they will be forced to admit they were wrong about this new system.  To the “purists” I have just one thing to say—don’t fear change, you’ll probably like it.

All in: PV’s 2011 Predictions

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The magic crystal baseball says...

Let me look into my crystal baseball for this year’s prediction…

I’m as excited as Smitty to be writing about baseball again, and luckily the off-season was busy enough to write an article here and there. I spent most of the off-season basking in the glow of how accurate I was in predicting things last season. The White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers kept me from perfection in the preseason predictions, but nothing kept me from perfection in the playoffs. Let’s not forget that I had accurately picked the Giants to be in the World Series in May.

As Smitty pointed out in his post yesterday, it’s been an interesting off-season with signings, blow-ups, and something more serious, concussions. All the drama of the off-season will be answered by October, and for some teams will be answered by June.

AL East Division Champions: Boston Red Sox
While the Boston Red Sox seem to be the clear-cut favorites by making the biggest splash this off-season with the signings of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Bobby Jenks let’s not forget about a team on the rise, the Toronto Blue Jays. I’ve forgotten about the Yankees already, as they keep getting older and less talented. Where Boston failed to improve was starting pitching, but it won’t be enough to keep them from winning the division with their All-Star offense. The Yankees have a strong chance of finishing behind the Blue Jays this year, with no true fourth and fifth starters. It never works in Chicago and it certainly will not work in the AL East. We’re shipping up to Boston!

AL Central Division Champions: Chicago White Sox
I’ve never been happier with the White Sox front office. Making all the right moves for the team and releasing dead weight, Bobby Jenks and Scott Linebrink aka Linestink, to improved the bullpen. They signed Adam Dunn and Jesse Crain (ex-Twin and proven set-up man), and resigned Paul Konerko and AJ Pierzynski. It looks like Jake Peavy will be back in the rotation by the end of April, and all should be well with the White Sox. For the Minnesota Twins to repeat they need a lot of things to go well for them, including Justin Morneau to return to form post concussion and for Joe Mauer to hit more than one home run at Target Field. I’m also not convinced that the 70′s porn mustache of Carl Pavano will continue to baffle AL Central hitters. The White Sox this year truly have the makings of a World Series ball club.

AL West Division Champions: Texas Rangers
How you cannot pick the Rangers to win this division is beyond me? Not only do they have young proven arms from last season, they also have a young proven offense from last season. To me this adds up to an AL West laugher. Everyone’s waiting for the Josh Hamilton implosion or the first trip to the DL for Nelson Cruz, not sure you should be counting on that. The Rangers prove what a good front office can do for you, and while I enjoyed the book Moneyball it doesn’t win you championships, it only wins you divisions. Money wins you championships and Oakland does not have it, and the Angels and Mariners are in a state of flux.

AL Wild Card: Toronto Blue Jays
I love the look of this team, they have a stable of young arms that will watch their ERA’s take a dive under four this season and they have more than enough pop to give the Red Sox a run for their money. I don’t think anyone expects Jose Bautista to hit 54 home runs again, but he will be in the 40′s along with 30-plus candidates Adam Lind and Travis Snider.

NL East Division Champions: Philadelphia Phillies
Best regular season rotation ever assembled, however the post season for many of the veteran Philly staff has not been friendly. So, while I think they’ll have no problems winning the division I do not see a World Series in their future. This older veteran staff pitched a lot of innings last year and will be worn down by October. As far as offense goes, well it’s hard to tell if the Braves have a better offense than Philly. I’ll say this, if Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are not in 2009 form the Phillies will have some problems, but not enough to derail a 95 win season.

NL Central Division Champions: Milwaukee Brewers
I was a year early when I picked the Brewers last season, but this is their year. Zack Greinke will return from his rib injury to lead a staff that has been improved by his addition and Shawn Marcum. Let’s not forget that Prince Fielder is in a contract year, which will lead to numbers that will surpass Albert Pujols this season. Let’s talks about Albert Pujols for a minute, I see an injury in his future. I can’t support the Reds because of the Dusty Baker factor, and with injuries to the Cardinals pitching staff; well they will not be there. As for the Cubs, well I’ll give them credit for not putting Carlos Silva in the rotation but this team is a year away from competing again. I have a feeling next year, I’ll have the Chicago Cubs in bold, be patient, a solid nucleus is forming.

NL West Division Champions: San Francisco Giants
Why are both West divisions so weak? They are always the hardest division to predict since they are all kind of the same team. The Giants fresh off a World Series victory should prevail with the best young rotation in baseball. I’m going to stick with the Giants here despite the recent news of that Brian Wilson may not be available for the opener and Cody Ross’s strained calf muscle. As for Smitty stating the Giants were “lucky,” well they won 92 games last season, I would hardly call that lucky. That’s nine more wins than St. Louis had when they EMBARRASSED THE TIGERS. In 2008, the Phillies won 92 games; no one accused them of barely making the playoffs.

NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
A solid rotation and an improved offense make the Braves all but a shoe-in for this spot.

World Series: Chicago White Sox over the Atlanta Braves in 7
Ozzie will square off against his old team one year too late. What a great story it would have been for Ozzie to manage against mentor Bobby Cox. That series probably would have had the most ejections in World Series history, instead the Sox and Braves will battle to the brink with the White Sox clinching game seven at home because the AL will win the All-Star game this year. I feel dumber for having to type that an exhibition game decides home field advantage in the playoffs, but that’s another article for another day.

AL MVP: Josh Hamilton, TEX

AL Cy Young: John Danks, CHI

NL MVP: Prince Fielder, MIL

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, SF

 


BOOM! Thanks Tigers!

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So I shut the Tigers/Twins game off when the Twins stretched their lead to 6-3 last night. I went to bed thinking the Sox would be 4-1/2 games back going into the Red Sox series beginning this evening at Fenway Park. Instead the Tigers represented the grit and toughness of their manager, Jim Leyland, and won 10-9 in extra innings.

What’s even better the Twins were forced to use their starter for tonight’s game against the Texas Rangers, Nick Blackburn, so the Twins have no scheduled starter for this evening.

Thanks Tigers for helping out the Sox last night, now White Sox… carpe diem!

Oh no, Manny’s on deck!!!

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courtesy of AP

The mere sight of Manny Ramirez strikes fear into the hearts of pitchers throughout the league, well at least the bullpen of the Cleveland Indians. Last night Manny came out to pinch-hit in the ninth inning with AJ Pierzynski at the plate. As Hawk Harrelson would say, “AJ got a cookie and he did not miss it.” No he did not, as AJ launched a three-run bomb that helped the Sox win behind another stellar pitching performance from Edwin Jackson.

The Sox have struggled all year against the Indians, so when they had the opportunity to go for the sweep this afternoon I had my doubts, but something crazy happened again with the Sox down 4-2 with two runners on. Paul Konerko stepped into the batters box and Manny stepped into the on-deck circle and BOOM!!! For the second straight game a three-run homer occurred with Ramirez on deck. Bill Melton spoke last night during the White Sox post game on how Manny’s presence will help add to Konerko’s already gaudy totals, 33 home runs, 98 RBI’s, and a .319 batting average. If that’s the case then the White Sox should not have any problems over taking the Twins, because in Yankee fashion they should be able to out slug an opponent.

So a sweep of the Indians is how this ten game road trip starts out for the White Sox, now if we could get a little help from the Tigers tonight and tomorrow things will get even more interesting in the AL Central.

Cowboy Joe strikes again!

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What, it's raining.

The White Sox lost a starting pitcher last night, not to injury but to idiot umpire, Cowboy Joe West. He allowed last nights game of the Sox vs. Royals to start even though radar showed him 20-minutes prior to the game that it would surely get rained out. Edwin Jackson threw seven pitches in the bottom of the first and then Shit-kicker Joe called the game as torrential rains poured down.

Now, the Sox and KC have to play a double-header tonight that can’t start until 6:10pm because of ridiculous rules that MLB has with Fox television. As of right now the Sox have no starter for the second game this evening which will probably start just shy of 10pm this evening.

Is there any punishment for an umpire? What kind of idiot allows a game to start after he looks at a radar with the grounds crew chief and it’s all green? This moron’s reign of terror needs to be put to an end, Cowboy Joe should stick to his shitty music and get out of baseball.

Dunn Trading?

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Are the White Sox done making moves or will they add a left-handed power hitter to an already deadly line-up? If Don Cooper can correct a flaw in Edwin Jackson’s delivery that will bring him back to form then I say forget about Adam Dunn and trade some prospects for maybe a Jack Cust? Cust can just walk across the field today and hit a few home runs against his former team the Oakland Athletics. This might be wishful thinking on my part, but Billy Beane is always looking for high impact, low-cost prospects to keep his team competitive.

Cust is only signed through this year at $2.8 million, and if he continues to hit like he has since coming back from injury his price tag will only continue to go up. Again, this is just speculation on my part, but this has potential and Kenny Williams tends to make the least talked about move with great impact.

Now, let’s say Jackson was just visiting on his way to The Nationals for Dunn, what will the White Sox do for a fifth starter? Look to the North my friends and think Shawn Marcum or Brandon Marrow. Toronto is in a dealing mode as they’ve called it a season and they are looking to shed some cash, so this is also very plausible. This is how things will most likely shake out if Dunn comes to the White Sox, the questions is to get Marcum or Marrow will the Sox need to give up starting pitcher, Carlos Torres?

It should be an interesting day for White Sox fans.